For those unfamiliar with Blaise Pascal, he was a brilliant 17th century French mathematician who is famous for many contributions including Pascal’s Wager.  Lifted from Wikipedia, “Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas he stands to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in hell).”  In my childhood I had been admonished with similar arguments and it always struck me as artificially binary.  Let us examine some other possible outcomes to this game of life.

Scenario one (the most rosy scenario):  god exists and you believe.  The assumed payout is going to heaven and living for eternity.  Pascal assumed an infinite good, but is he correct?  Perhaps endless bliss for eternity could be appealing to some, but the idea makes me weary.  I don’t want to go on for an infinite amount of time.  What makes life special is that it is fragile, fleeting and rare.  If I learned anything from Zardoz, it is that being an eternal sucks.  

Scenario two:  god exists and you didn’t believe or believe correctly.  The punishment for guessing wrong is an eternity of hell.  Pascal assumed this as an infinite bad.  Again, anything for an eternity gets boring.  I only have so many orifices in which a pineapple can be forcibly inserted.  

Scenario three:  belief in a god and no afterlife.  No harm, no foul.  Pascal assumed you only forgo a few luxuries and pleasures to follow his religion, but that is too narrowly focused.  How many people struggle with who they are because their religion tells them they are imperfect sinners and they need to atone with money and supplication?  Different religions demand different amounts of sacrifice of time and money, so I won’t dwell on the details, but the costs are not insignificant.  Suffice to say that money and time diverted to religious purposes is wasted if the religion is incorrect.

Scenario four:  you don’t believe in god and there is no afterlife.  You get to be responsible for your own life and choices.  There is no hope for a deus ex machina.  There is no cosmic justice or divine inspiration.  No fellow travelers or community to share your burdens. There is no moral objection to debauchery, but there are social consequences.  Cheating on a spouse will usually end a marriage.  Heavy drug use will cost you a job.  Being a dick still gets you uninvited to parties.  Shame, guilt and feelings of inadequacy are just as painful when generated internally versus externally.  The only benefit of atheism is freedom to define your own morality.

These are the four possible outcomes of Pascal’s Wager:  god exists/faith, god exists/no faith, no god/faith and no god/no faith.  This is where I take issue with the wager.  It simplifies religion/god into a binary, when there are countless religions and beliefs that are all in opposition to one another.  The choice isn’t really god vs no god, the choice is a rejection of all religions or choosing one of thousands.  Even limiting the thought experiment to the most popular religions, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism, you only have a twenty percent chance of picking correctly.  One in five odds to gamble eternity.  This assumes all Christian denominations are interchangeable even though there are dozens from which to choose.  Even in Islam, which prides itself on fidelity to the word, you must chose between Sunni and Shia.   Theravada Buddhism, Mahayana Buddhism, and Vajrayana Buddhism are all competing for your attention.  Hinduism brings its own complexities with polytheism.  Which of the gods are real?  All?  Some?  None?  How do you know which to make an offering?  I haven’t even scratched the surface of the old gods and long forgotten religions.  Choosing any of these religions is de facto rejection of all others.  You haven’t really placed a wager of god vs no god, you have placed a wager of one belief vs thousands of other choices.  

Pascal was clearly brilliant, but he engaged in a practice I find disturbing and increasing in modern society.  He took a complex decision and condensed it into right versus wrong.  His wager assumed Christianity or atheism was the correct answer and never considered that they could both be wrong.  Alternatively, they could both be correct.  There is no way of knowing if what you believe when you are alive, shapes your fate after death.  It is a debate with no possible resolution.  

Modern wagers aren’t all about religion, but they do suffer from the same limited mindset.  Activists still frame complex problems in a simple binary matrix.  Abortion, homelessness and crime are issues that require real thought and nuanced thinking.  However, people claim there are simple solutions to these complicated issues.  Total abolition of abortions versus absolute choice until birth.  Giving the homeless a home versus chasing them out of the city.  Rehabilitation of convicts versus a police state.  I understand this desire to simplify the world.  We all want to do the right thing, but what is right is not often clear.  Everything has costs and benefits and even those are subjective for every individual.  Knowing what is right is difficult because we are all working with imperfect knowledge.  What troubles me is the people who are so certain that they are on the right side of history.  There is a smugness that comes with absolute faith that they are correct.  It leads to polarization and divides too deep to bridge.  Othering people leads to dehumanization and makes violence that much easier.  I only ask you to consider that when encountering people with different beliefs and ideas, do not dismiss them out of hand.  Just because you listen doesn’t mean you have to agree or change your position.  Everyone is not good or bad, wrong or right, but they are humans trying to make their way through a chaotic world.  Life is a cosmic crap game.  We hold our collective breath as the dice bounce, praying we placed our wager wisely.

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong”

– H. L. Mencken