In the comments on Pie’s article about the Internet (Thursday, 5 Dec Noon Post), I saw some comments in a subthread about the size and composition of the military that sparked some thoughts I decided to share because I find it a fascinating discussion topic for libertarians. I hope it hasn’t already been covered before, but even if it does, I hope I can offer something new on the subject for the Glibertariat.
I first must ‘confess’ that I subscribe to agreeing (generally) with George Nash’s configuration of where libertarians fall in the political taxonomy in his seminal work “The Conservative Intellectual Movement in America since 1945.” First published in 1976 as a graduate thesis, it’s been reprinted and I’ve read a more recent, updated edition. Some of you may disagree and that’s fair enough, but in any serious consideration of the size and scope of the military, undergirding has to be some coherent theory of valid political action of the government in the area of foreign affairs, trade, and immigration, all of which impact what specie of military you think is valid to have. As a concrete example, do you think the US military should protect US commercial shipping the world over? The Founding Fathers themselves certainly did, and since I consider myself a ‘constitutional libertarian,’ I note that even President ‘Mr. Yeoman Farmer’ Jefferson was willing to “send in the Marines!” to “the Shores of Tripoli” to stop the Barbary pirates from playing around with US shipping. It was an issue that Jefferson explicitly ran on against John Adams – the payment of US tribute of to the “petty tyrant of Algiers.” This dated to the Founding of the republic, by the way, and so it can’t be claimed this didn’t inform the creation of the Constitution itself. From the wiki:
The United States had signed treaties with all of the Barbary states after its independence was recognized between 1786-1794 to pay tribute in exchange for leaving American merchantmen alone, and by 1797, the United States had paid out $1.25 million or a fifth of the government’s annual budget then in tribute.[12] These demands for tribute had imposed a heavy financial drain and by 1799 the U.S. was in arrears of $140,000 to Algiers and some $150,000 to Tripoli.[13] Many Americans resented these payments, arguing that the money would be better spent on a navy that would protect American ships from the attacks of the Barbary pirates, and in the 1800 Presidential Election, Thomas Jefferson won against incumbent second President John Adams, in part by noting that the United States was “subjected to the spoliations of foreign cruisers” and was humiliated by paying “an enormous tribute to the petty tyrant of Algiers”.[14]
Washington himself as the very first President asked Congress in 1794 – at the urging of the people – to appropriate money for a Navy to deal with the problem as the US tried to grow its economy by participating in international commerce.
Which brings us back again to a serious question about the size and scope of the military and what capabilities should the US military have. Should the US have some capability to do Non-Combatant Evacuation Operations (NEOs, in military acronymese) from places like US Embassies around the globe? If so, what does that imply about the capability required to operate in the environments where embassies are found: from mountains, to jungles, to deserts, to large cities, to coastlines, in all weather conditions, in extremis, day or night? What about places from which one must be able to launch those operations if you don’t have bases around the world? Should this capability be expanded enough to cover the ability to pull out a large US expat population living abroad in a country that suddenly turns shitty in a short time? Or is your foreign policy one that includes the ability to tell the American people: “Meh. Tough shit. Shouldn’t live in those kinds of places.” Or does your foreign policy include only an economic response to such provocations? How about if someone shoots down/blows up a US commercial passenger jet in foreign airspace, for example, like the one over Locherbie, Scotland. As an interesting footnote, a high school classmate and friend of mine, Rob “Shaggy” Schlageter (with a pair of burgundy corduroys and green shirt, he would was a dead ringer for Sccoby’s partner!) was killed aboard that plane.
Which brings us to a much more interesting question, I think, about the size and scope of the US military and its capability. Most of us have grown up for most, if not all, of our lives with the US as an (or THE) unquestioned military superpower. It isn’t just the nukes, either. We can put a missile in your bedroom window or men with guns over your bed while you sleep anywhere in the world on relatively short notice. It is a truly awesome capability and I give you my solemn vow it is true as someone who has seen and been a part of what we can do at the very, very pointy tip of that spear. But it has always been an article of faith for me that the most powerful military in the world should be commanded, led by, and serve the most moral/ethical people. And I can’t envision any sane theory of morals or ethics in which it is any other way. That is to say, I would like to hear Sam Harris, or Zombie Hitchens, or any moral relativist defend the notion that it makes no difference whether the US had the stronger military or Imperial Japan did. Or Nazi Germany. Now if this all seems a bit farfetched or Ivory Tower, let me offer up the thought experiment that really has formed the basis for this entire piece:
Close your eyes and try imagine that the United States is NOT the world’s pre-eminent military. Imagine instead that Jane’s and all of the other publications that track such things consider the U.S. to be the 6th strongest/most capable military in the world. Once you have really got that in your head, the first thing that pops into my mind is ‘who are numbers 1 through 5?’ And if you can’t imagine five countries above you that make your blood run cold, I hope you will take my word and know it comes from a place of love when I say that you haven’t traveled enough to have an informed opinion on the debate about the size and scope of the U.S. military. Because I can sure imagine 5 countries I wouldn’t want to see above us on that list; and I can also imagine what it might mean if the list ever looked like that in some dystopian future, and what that would mean for human suffering the world over, much less right in our own backyards.
I am staunchly against military adventurism the world over because it costs lives and for over two decades a good chunk of those were my friends. Or at least it sure does seem like it because I have and know of a fair number of dead guys and gals, including some by their own hand. I have also seen the horrors of what people are capable of doing to each other the world over and I know that the US military acts as some kind of brake on those horrors, even if it’s just in an ancillary way by protecting sea lanes of commerce, for example. Piracy still claims a measurable chunk of the world’s commerce every year. I believe I’ve read that rust destroys 10% of the world’s (steel) infrastructure every year in a book called, boringly, “Rust.” It’s the bane of any salt-water Navy. For perspective, in the mid-1980’s Ronald Reagan’s Secretary of the Navy James Webb – yes, later Senator Webb (D. Va) and Dem. Presidential-candidate – quit in protest over the refusal of Congress to fund a 600-ship Navy. We are currently at 430 ships.
I want to add one final coda to this piece and that is to state that even in the principle of self-defense you can’t escape the costs necessary to engage in it. Thus, I believe any discussion about the Nation’s military should also include a discussion of how much GDP (as a percentage) one is willing to spend on it. The budget need not be anywhere near as complicated as it is if we simply allocated as a percentage of prior year’s GDP. It’s how NATO allocates its member funding requirements. Trump has made the point recently that we spend “4.2% GDP in real numbers” for our military. Google claims it is 3.145%. Whatever the number is, we could likely agree that some % is sufficient for our needs, set it there as a matter of statute or even Amendment, and allow for additional spending only in the event of a Congressional Declaration of War or contingency for 60 days or less (tie the Amendment to the War Powers Act for all I care). I will also set aside for the moment the notion that these kinds of discussions
The point is that if there is a justification for having a military then we, as a Nation, should have a conception of what that is in both a philosophical and a practical sense, which informs its missions and capabilities, as well as its costs. Clausewitz said famously: “We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means. War is the continuation of politics by other means.” While one can argue about definitions enough to perhaps find some kinds of violence between people that doesn’t quite fit the definitions, for my purposes and those of this article it suffices to describe the relationship between a military and the political institutions of a modern nation-state. The Founding Fathers found out quite early on that the world would not simply let us ply our trade and mind our own isolationist business. The realities of modern shipping and aviation, along with the number of Americans living abroad, suggest that we must have some kind of military with some kind and level of capability, which implies training, equipment, etc. (It also implies a certain level of economy to produce material in peacetime sufficient to support those military capabilities, a place for them to be stationed, places to train, etc.)
Could it and should it cost less? Absolutely. I could tell stories to make you blush from my friends at the Pentagon in procurement. My own experiences in the military validate the notion of September splurging in order to maintain at least last year’s funding, as just one example. But I think sweeping statements about wiping out entire branches of the military need to be considered in light of both the needs and the capabilities of a military and what that really means. In my opinion, too many libertarians (at least that I’ve seen) simply wave this all away or argue for absolutes with nary a word turned toward what I see as essential considerations that any serious person would at least mention in broad discussion of these subjects.
Wanting to end the military adventurism abroad is a laudable goal, towards which we should all be working, but we undermine its cause with simplistic screeds. The people who wrote the Constitution were rightfully leery about standing armies, having just expelled one. They also conceived of – and led – a nation of independent-minded citizens who could and would defend themselves by force of arms on their own account and believed, as a people of commerce, that they would rather pay for a military than pay tributes to warlords attacking and kidnapping US citizens abroad.
I’ll let the Glibertariat hash out the details and point out the flaws in my thinking in the comments.
Ozy
I for one am fine with the draw-down of the Navy as we will no longer have to subsidize the rest of the world’s shipping. Zeihan has some interesting points on this.
Hey! I haven’t seen you in a while! Whats up?!?!?
I generally lurk so as to inhibit my tendency to descend into a politically incorrect diatribe, but I had the chance to steal a first post so I took it.
You mean like every other Glib?
True, part of why I come back. But, there are always degrees and I didn’t build this place. Perhaps I am overly paranoid.
You needn’t be niggardly with your opinions.
RACIST! But of course it’s a real thing.
But the M-word still makes me giggle.
Giant knife ASC-II guy!
“send in the Marines!”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHhZF66C1Dc
That is awesome. Love Tom Lehrer.
I have to run to the airport, so I’ll catch back up in an hour or so when I get through security.
You don’t have precheck?
Given your background you might be able to get it pretty easy.
I have Clear (and I’m through!), but I live about 45 mins from PHX. I let the govt steal time and then sell it back to me as “security.” I fucking hate the TSA’s existence with the heat of a thousand suns going supernova.
“The realities of modern shipping and aviation, along with the number of Americans living abroad, suggest that we must have some kind of military with some kind and level of capability, which implies training, equipment, etc.”
This seems, to me anyway, the salient question in this era of the nation-state (standard disclaimer about preferences for a non-state society). What shipping should be protected? To what extent? Do you require shipping companies to pay the cost of security – what would that do to freight costs? Am I channeling the judge?
I’m more or less a “Fortress America” type of guy. If you build a military with capabilities to strike and occupy anywhere in the world, it will inevitably be used that way. Like any other function of government, build it with the full expectation that literally Hitler will one day be running it.
With that in mind, I think you could still maintain a rather robust and adept navy under those circumstances to protect whatever maritime interests we have. At the same time, I don’t think the US navy should necessarily be a security service for shipping merchants – there’s privateers for that.
Lastly, I think a % of GDP budgeting process for something as critical as defense is a horrendously bad idea. In recessionary times you may not be able to maintain any of the capabilities you’ve developed during surplus years; conversely, you may end up with tremendous deadweight loss in surplus years as superfluous capabilities accumulate to meet some arbitrary budget number. It also leaves you little ability to differentiate between peacetime and war.
I disagree. It leaves you with the very specific ability to differentiate between War and Not War: Congressional Declaration or GTFO in 60 days. And if you can’t fund a 60-day contingency operation then you’re not doing a very good job as a flag officer or at the DoD. We have already have MPS ships waiting for contingency operations the world over.
And if you can’t maintain the stuff in peacetime/recession then you need to draw down somewhat and ramp up as necessary. Welcome to not being involved in everyone else’s shit all the time.
Right, but how are you going to ramp up in the face of an immediate threat if you’re stuck in a recessionary budget baseline and you’re spending the whole thing on maintenance? You can’t be assured you will only face existential military threats in surplus years. In that case you would have to either break the rule and provision up anyway, or tell the American people you are going to prosecute an underfunded war in order to maintain principle. So the cap becomes somewhat meaningless.
The immediate post war order was guaranteed by the USN. Effectively, the promise was: “We will give you access to global trade over the ocean in exchange for not allying with communists.” Among other things, this is the lever Nixon used to pull China away from the Soviet Union. Our for about 40 years our total dominance of the SLOCs has enabled the rapid growth of the global economy, but the real cost to our economy should not be overlooked. We set up a system to guarantee global trade but if you look at the numbers, we don’t actually use it. Almost all of our trade needs are met between Canada and Mexico. The balance by Korea and Japan. We have incredibly strong internal consumer demand and the ability to fill that domestically. The only Navy we really need is one sufficient to protect American shipping and an American expeditionary force. The rest of the world can figure out how to relearn their naval traditions – we haven’t had a strategic need to maintain global trade since the early 90s. More to the point, the present size of our fleet is no longer sufficient to actually carry out that mission.
. Almost all of our trade needs are met between Canada and Mexico
Yup. Trade between nations follows a similar “Inverse Square law” relationship in distance between countries. Also National borders hinder trade incredibly, despite any free trade agreement. There is more trade between New York and Oregon than Oregon and British Colombia.
Quite so, and what makes the situation even more interesting is looking at trade in energy. The US has fundamentally achieved energy independence through fracking. If that starts to dry up, we have a capital market that can shift us to nuclear. We export light sweet crude, the best crude, which the rest of the world pays top dollar for. We import the absolute shit sour crude that the middle east and south america produces and refine it – basically no one else has refineries set up to handle the nasty stuff so we arbitrage crazy on that trade.
Isn’t the issue though that the U.S. is not interested in nuclear energy?
Yes and no. Capital and technology are very interested, but the economics in the US are kinked. The Armed Services are independent licencing authorities and are moving forward with land based small modular reactors – they don’t have to answer to the executive regulatory agencies so they can afford to be smart. Civil rectors would be cost competitive with coal but for the US regulatory environment. Some ground swell from the green movement but the practicality of pulling back the authority of the NRC / EPA mean at current energy prices there is really no need. The fossil sources we presently have are sufficient to meet internal demand.
Sending things to Canada is crazy expensive.
Toronto is about an hour away but costs 10x to ship a product to compared to shipping it 10 hours away.
The goods that I sell cost about 4x more to ship to Canada than to New York.
My best friend also lives in Toronto, so I’m well acquainted with shipping costing as much as the item in the box…
An interesting paper on that topic, and alternative explanations/contributions
https://www.nber.org/papers/w5939.pdf
Nice find. I think i used his and Krugmans textbook in my International trade book.
During the Obama years when Lefties were cheering his every expansion of government power, I used to tell them something like, “I know you like the things being done right now, but Obama won’t be president forever. And some really bad person is going to end up in that office someday – maybe not this very next election, maybe in 10, 20, 30 years, but it’s going to happen. And when it does, it’s going to be really bad if he has this leviathan-size government at his disposal. When you want to expand government power, you can’t just think about the immediate effects (or lack of) – you have to think about what could be done with that power if the worst person ever was in charge.”
Looks like that happened sooner than I thought. I really just want to tell them, “Maybe you wouldn’t have to be so worried about Trump if you had listened to libertarians on the dangers of centralizing power in the office of POTUS.”
I want to come up with a more subtle, less pointed way to say this because I’ve found that with the particular group of “progressives” I talk to, it’s more effective to plant a tiny seed of doubt in their minds and let it grow rather than telling them up-front that they’re wrong.
…it’s more effective to plant a tiny seed of doubt in their minds and let it grow rather than telling them up-front that they’re wrong.
I’ve seen that film – the answer you are looking for is a spinning top.
topception
I’ve thought about this a bit. And would like to do more research on it. The US is in a unique position so obviously this isn’t a universal position, but i tend to think a strong Navy is fine and having a small regular force in order to act as a skeleton cadre to build up a larger force in case of emergency might be fine. The rest should be done by Militias.
In other words the Size of the navy does little to promote military adventurism because navies can’t hold land. It is the size of the Army that has directly led to the amount of adventurism we participate in.
Pretty much this.
Isn’t the historical existence of GB: World Empire a pretty strong counterpoint to this argument?
Not really… My point was that the Army must be weakened absolutely, not just relative to the Navy. In other words the Brits had a strong navy, but they also had a strong standing army.
Did they have a strong standing army? I don’t know anything other than a quip by Bismark to have the British Army arrested if they land on his soil.
Maybe my point should be restated. The British had a standing army, sure it was weak compared to Germany (perhaps the strongest force at the time, depending on where you would rank France). What i’m saying is that the US should not have a standing Army apart from small reactionary forces and training Cadre. That is not what GB had. Great Britain had a standing army ready and throughout her colonies.
Somewhat. But the British held a lot of territory because they often formed alliances with local rulers in exchange for loyalty and employed locals as troops. For example, by about 1900, the British army in India numbered 1.5 million. At the same time, the total number of British administrators and soldiers was 20k.
This. The British Navy secured British trade, which led to insane wealth, which let them basically buy the world. India, as in your example, was secured almost entirely by a private company before being annexed by the government.
Yep, although they the EIC had the backing of the Royal Navy. Also, one of the reasons the EIC extended control was because of the collapse of Mughal power in southern India. This meant that trade routes were no longer being protected so the EIC began offering that protection. Calcutta was, for all intents and purposes, founded by the EIC as an fortified trading post.
A decent chunk of our Navy – carriers and assualt carriers l – are designed in part to transport Marines and give them the capability to force entry and hold land on any shore.
The active army is half the size it was 3 decades ago.
I’m shooting for 1820 level size of the Army.
I would actually like a bigger more capable Reserve and National Guard and smaller army. But over the past two decades we’ve used the Reserves way too much. And the National Guard has gone from heavy follow-on forces to live bodies to backfill occupation forces.
I got out of the Guard when they were re-flagging my armor battalion into MPs because I didn’t feel like guarding an Iraqi prison for a year.
I agree. In a “Smaller steps” the Guard would need to go back to being a Strategic Reserve, rather than an operational reserve. But the Active Duty has got a hard on for treating them like guys who can go get shit deployments to GoFuckYourselfStan while Active Duty units are on “Deployment” to Germany and Poland.
There are serious generals who want to increase the amount of training days the guard has from 38 to 90-100. Cause you know Employers love paying someone who is gone for a full quarter of the year.
Yeah, that’s part of why I got out. They were getting excited about doing year long deployments on regular rotations every couple of years. The guard management, I hesitate to use leadership, was totally in love with it and couldn’t see what was wrong with picture.
Look at the bios for brigade and higher commanders after that position. Used to be they were mostly civilian part timers. Now, they’re trying to wrangle (“Temporary”) active duty slots in major commands and climb the greasy pole a bit further. If you want to do AD permanently, go active.
Also Rah Rah Marines and all, but they are not a big Land Force, and can’t hold land in the same way the Army can. But i agree. The Marines, in as much as they have been grown into a land force should be drawn down back to the point of protecting naval officers from mutiny.
3 active 1 Reserve division. Been that way since Korea.
The Army should be reduced (my service prides cringes at the realization)…I think pulling out of South Korea and Europe and the various Small Wars should about do it. Keep a goodly force to be a core for the Guard and Reserve to fill around at need.
The Navy (again, this pains me) should be big and mean…Marines can stay where they are. The Air Force should be able to make anyone coming near here regret that choice immediately….but no larger.
Protecting our commerce and our people is good. Punishing those that attack us, in a devastating manner is good. More than that is not really needed or desirable.
Guard and Reserve to fill around at need.
I would amend that Federal Funding be cut, in exchange that only Governors be allowed to ‘Federalize’ the units.
The Air Force should be subsumed back into the Army where it belongs. Their entire existence as an independent service is based on fundamentally flawed assumption.
I’m not saying I disagree – but I’d like to hear what that flawed assumption is, in your opinion.
That strategic bombing can win a war. It cannot, but the assumption seemed to pass the sense test in light of atomic weapons. The presumed ability of strategic air power to wind a war was the justification for existence as an independent service because, fundamentally, an independent service should be independently capable of waging war. Going to take lunch but there is more to be written here.
I’d like to jump in and add a couple of anecdotes from the “military capability” side. First, the attempted rescue of the Iranian hostages by all 4 (5?) services was an abysmal goat-rope. Setting aside the tactical, operational, and strategic failures, the part no one ever talks about is the “why” of it. Every service wanted to (a) get their kill on, and (b) show their relevance in the post-Vietnam era. It’s always a fight for funding among service branches. It is something that does not necessarily serve We, the People, overall very well.
And now I look and someone else has already brought this up.
Shit, people, can’t you even wait for my inflight internet to kick in and let me sound erudite!?! Splitters.
When are we drinking again? We should do a paper on this.
That got me curious and led me to this handy chart: https://imgur.com/awVKTLr
Damn, that’s a pretty big fleet, and more subs than I expected.
That’s more carriers than i expected.
NEEDZ MOAR Littorals!!11!!! – Local ship builder always complaining.
Are those the ones that litorrally don’t work?
TUNDRA destroyers this one COMPANY with FACTS AND LOGIC
By tonnage, we’re more than I believe the next 9 navies combined or something goofy like that.
That stat is skewed by the fact the the US is over-invested in carriers, which are huge. Russia and China combined outmatch the US Navy if carriers are excluded, so the US lead is not quite as much as that stat would imply, since carriers are not as important to dominance as they once were.
Carriers always and forever are primary to dominance because of kill chain compression. They are simply more vulnerable in light of an increased area denial capability of the enemy. Even by straight number of hulls we still outclass our next 5 rivals – off the cuff and not accounting for our merchant marine and the Army’s independent sea-lift capability.
+14 boomers (no, not those boomers)
I don’t have a great deal of faith in my Betters being able to accurately analyze future threats and build accordingly. I have zero problem with a robust military, both from a practical and psychological standpoint, but holy hell does the process look retarded.
Oh, and thanks, Ozy. I really dig articles like this.
Tip of the cap, to ye, Tundra. I think I can do these on a variety of subjects, so I’ll just start dropping them in as they come to me.
I have never been all that interested in military stuff. My conception was inspired by the draft and I always thought my dad was somewhat cowardly for ducking out of it. Then I grew up and saw the futility and stupidity of Vietnam and its aftermath and realized that it was smart and rational, but there’s that little twinge of “that was cowardly.”
That said, Ozy, I will read anything you write whether I care about the topic or not.
Like a lot of young men I was pretty gung-ho for the military in my teens. But when I got my selective service card in the mail and actually filled it out and mailed it back in accordance with the law, it really hit me exactly what I was signing on for, and I took some time to consider what I would have done in that era. And after I chiseled through the false bravado I realized that there is no way in hell I wouldn’t have done everything I could to avoid getting sent to the fucking jungle halfway across the globe to get massacred like a farm animal in the name of containment. There’s things I would certainly be willing to kill for and die for, and the geopolitical composition of Asia isn’t one them.
I will reply when I have a more thoughtful answer than just throwing words and a mass of feelz out there.
Ah, and there is HM’s usual expression of approval and agreement.
“SHUT THE FUCK UP, LIBTARD!” is actually what I cry during climax.
Sorry for the confusion.
Sounds kind of elitist.
Pat really turns you on?
I always comment one-handed.
To avoid the draft, I became a lieutenant in the Russian military. But that was something everybody was doing who didn’t have a medical exemption.
there is no way in hell I wouldn’t have done everything I could to avoid getting sent to the fucking jungle halfway across the globe to get massacred like a farm animal in the name of containment.
Making it all the worse was the fact that the civilian and military leadership even later acknowledged that Vietnam was probably never a the right place to try to contain the communists.
Cowardly/guilt trip, SOP for the state: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daddy,_what_did_you_do_in_the_Great_War%3F
That’s a goodie.
Thank you, Moj, very flattering. I shan’t run out of things to say any time soon, so… there ya go!
(I also do requests! As well as wedding and bah mitzvah speeches!)
I pimped it last night on the alcoholic thread, but I listened to this excellent podcast yesterday and found it fascinating how the advent of the big bombs affected the composition of forces.
Initially the SAC and USAF were to receive the bulk of resources for moar bombz and delivery systems. But when it became obvious that actually using the fucking things wouldn’t really be feasible, it became nuke-less proxy actions instead, with the attendant build up of all forces to accommodate.
There is a reason Congress no longer declares wars.
The Korean War was total clusterfuck – where bad planning and ill-preparedness cost a lot of lives.
*Korean police action.
-1 This Kind of War
I’m still trying to understand why merchant ships can’t defend themselves and require taxpayers to defend their under-capitalized businesses.
I assume it’s regulations and liabilities. The videos of cruise ships and supertankers trying to repel Somali pirates with water cannons are riduculous. A dual .50 solve the problem immediately. Even the ship security outfits try to use non-lethal force (although I assume at some point they turn off the cameras and just kill them and let the sharks deal with evidence).
I’m still trying to understand why
merchant shipsAmerican citizens can’t defend themselves and require taxpayers to defend theirunder-capitalized businessesunder-armed homesteads.I’m struggling to find any self-consistent argument for de-funding shipping defense that doesn’t apply to general national defense. Not saying there isn’t one, but it’s not coming to me.
The reality is that a land invasion of the continental US is far more impractical and implausible than piracy, so I can see why an exception was made to an otherwise sound principle, but it’s a subsidy to exports full stop.
Historically, pirates were considered “Enemies of Humanity” and accorded no rights. Merchant ships generally don’t defend themselves because they have to answer to their own governments. Nevertheless, there PMCs doing a good business in armed escorts aboard. They maintain floating armories to avoid the regulatory hurdles.
Taxation Is Piracy
Letters of marque aren’t still a thing?
They are-ish. There was a treaty that ended the practice in the mid 1800’s and the US has adhered to it, without being a signatory.
I would be thrilled if the US brought back LoM/Reprisal and the Prize system. The last prize case was bullshit too, the commander and crew got screwed.
Ron Paul submitted a bill in the wake of the WoT, but it didn’t pass.
I was unaware. I lament, unceasingly, our popular inability to install more of him.
Letters of Marque and Reprisal are against states….pirates are considered stateless. No need for paper to kill them.
@ {|}===[|}:;:;:;:;:;:;:> said:
and @Drake said:
Which is why I asked the question.
I believe for a while, the insurance calculation for Somali piracy was that it was cheaper pay the pirates than risk paying for ship/cargo destruction or life insurance policies on crew, so it was more of a math problem than a legal issue.
Except for the Iron Law about getting more of what you reward.
Letters of marque aren’t still a thing?
They deserve a comeback.
Yes, si vis pacem… and all that jazz, but I find the absence of any discussion of Wilsonian idealism strange in this context. Because, that’s really the problem. There is nothing wrong with having the most powerful military in the world, per se. Indeed, that should be the goal of any state; however, Americans have erred time and time again in believing that military strength entails a certain responsibility to maintaining a liberal international order. As horrific as FDR’s original conception of the “Four Policemen” doctrine was, the “One Policeman” doctrine of the Project for a New American Century was even more horrific.
Oh, and bring back the “punitive expedition,” that would also solve a lot of our problems.
I’m not very learned in military affairs, but don’t we spell “punitive expedition” with the letters I, C, B, and M now?
If only…
That would have saved us almost 20 years in Afghanistan.
Hey, we could still be there for another 20 years, don’t count us out yet!
Fair point. And I guess we did a fair number of punitive expeditions in Latin America in the 80’s too.
That would have saved us almost 20 years in Afghanistan.
But, Heroic, that wouldn’t give us the chance to save the poor benighted brown savages. Give us another twenty years and, goshdarnit, Kabul will be just like downtown Madison, Wisconsin!
Kabul will be just like downtown Madison, Wisconsin!
A fate worse than Nuclear Annihilation
Heck, we can’t even raise San Francisco to the level of Madison, WI. In the past twenty years, we’ve rather dragged it the other direction, more like Kabul.
The only thing I’ve gotten out of all this is that “burka” is now a Pornhub category.
One of the best ones, if you ask me.
To Bush’s credit, Afghanistan was pretty much a punitive expedition; one in which we’d pulled most of our forces out of before Obama declared it to be the “Right War” and committed significantly higher numbers of troops and resources.
Bottom line: Obama had about as many casualties in Afghanistan in 2010 as Bush had in the entire seven years he was in office.
I left Afghanistan in ’06 for the last time and by then, I’m telling you, (1) the “war” was over and had been since ’05; (2) we were dead certain bin Laden was in Pakistan, but the Pakis wouldn’t let us operate there; (3) it should shock exactly 0.00 people that bin Laden was found holed-up near a Paki military base.
I agree, but having the strongest military makes it that much easier to feel like you should be the “policeman”. Especially since most of these “Police” actions are not really about being punitive but about expanding the geopolitical power of the US government in regions. It just gets sold that way.
It is a bit of “power corrupts”, isn’t it?
“Police” actions are not really about being punitive but about expanding the geopolitical power of the US government in regions.
Honestly, I’m really starting to think it isn’t even that cynical. I think a non-trivial part of society really does think they can wave a magic wand and make the world all puppies and unicorns.
Getting back to Congress being the source of declaring war would go a long ways toward containing the issue. Much easier said than done, though. Also if you had some special system of automatic “war tax” that was levied to pay for the increased cost of logistics for supplying overseas adventures, payable only by check/cash (no deductions!), so that people pay more attention.
I concur. Bring back decimation of the enemy while we’re at it. Our present methods of modern warfare are insufficiently ruthless.
When you say decimate the enemy, do you mean kill them all to a person, or would just 75% or 80% decimation work for you?
Well, if we’re going to be literal, he means only 10 percent.
My OCD is flaring when I read this comment
At least one in every ten as is traditional, preferably those of fighting age and sex and irrespective of station. Enough to leave a lasting impression psychologically and/or cripple them genetically in the long run.
Yeah, but think about how traumatic it will be for our service men and women to pull the trigger and kill all those people.
Also, ATM machine. The past tense of drag is drugged. And I hate to beg the question, but could you care less?
In an all volunteer force what impetus exists to care about psychological trauma? Select soldiers for defense of the homeland and warriors for punitive expeditions. Communicate these requirements beforehand to those who raise their hands.
1) I’m just trying to make Trashy’s ears bleed.
2) Decimation wasn’t performed by the victors. It was ordered by the victors, but they forced every set of 10 people in a unit to pick 1 of their own number and kill him themselves. It was as much a psychological attack as it was about the dead bodies. So it won’t be ‘our service men and women” pulling the trigger.
I’m aware of its use as a punishment to cohorts of cowards. However, I believe ti was also punishment to cities and tribes who had harmed a roman citizen. The legionaries had to kill their own but wasn’t sure about the offending populous. Have to think about whether it would be useful to have them do it to themselves and what those selection pressures would be. I presume you’d lose a lot of altruists.
IIRC (from reading, not from doing it…) the selection was random.
Me right now
I….
I’m not sure.
I think the devastation of wars in the past is somewhat vastly overstated. There are always cases of looting and massacre, but remember that Sherman was doing something pretty different in his “Total War” campaign.
I agree. A certain amount of calculated frightfulness in retaliation for some nation’s aggression or terrorist acts just might make some so-called responsible parties think twice.
I disagree. The ability to defend a nation has nothing to do with GDP.
If you decide the size of the military needs to be X based on A, and the nation’s GDP rises, why would I need bigger military to defend the nation if A hasn’t changed (assuming no inflation). The only reasons to spend more on a military is if you ask it to do more OR the expected threat changes.
Government is institutionally incapable of measuring outputs. They can only measure inputs. That’s not a military thing. That’s a “Monopoly on force + taxation power” thing.
Nothing to do with GDP? Nothing at all?? You do realize that you’re claiming that the poorest nation-state in the world is on an equal footing with the US militarily and it has nothing to do with the country’s GDP? Okay. I’ll just ignore that piece of hyperbole and move on to what I think is your main point – as the economy grows the military shouldn’t benefit. I could easily see indexing the %GDP to a particular baseline year and use growth to pay the debt. I also think you if you had a balanced budget amendment you could put some triggers in there to allow discretionary spending above the baseline, but still have caps on it tied to growth.
Point was there is no need to grow the military when GDP increases. Defending the nation to a certain level, based upon the anticipated threat is a fixed cost (less inflation) and doesn’t change based upon the state of our economy. The only thing that makes that number change is a change in the threat and/or asking them to do things that weren’t budgeted for.
But the bottom line is…before determining the size and structure of the military, one needs to define how it will be used and the threats it will likely face. We used to do a pretty good job with this and it pretty much went to shit since the end of the cold war
All the stuff in the lower left corner that nobody does anymore.
Should this capability be expanded enough to cover the ability to pull out a large US expat population living abroad in a country that suddenly turns shitty in a short time? Or is your foreign policy one that includes the ability to tell the American people: “Meh. Tough shit. Shouldn’t live in those kinds of places.”
Honestly, I’m not fully convinced it shouldn’t be that. Some decisions in life are just really, really stupid. And I’m not entirely convinced that it makes sense to endanger the lives of people like you or your friends to subsidize the stupid decisions of people who want to make them. They get the upside of those decisions (higher standard of living, bragging rights, etc.) of the decision. Why should the rest of us pay the exorbitant cost of maintaining enough military power to bail them out?
You mean you’re not going to front the cost of the littoral combat ship program to save my brown ass?
Maybe a clitoral combat ship.
The man in the canoe?
American people: “Meh. Tough shit. Shouldn’t live in those kinds of places.”
I can get telling people when we pull out (heh) but afterwords, i lean towards this.
Part of the reason we got into WWI (i mean other than Wilson really really wanted it) was that Wilson claimed that US Citizens should be able to travel through war zones, on belligerent ships, safely.
There are private services that handle this like Global Rescue. It’s not exorbitantly expensive to take out as a form of insurance.
Excellent point. I know that ol’ H. Ross Perot has dabbled in that on occasion, including for the Iranian hostages, IIRC. Maybe it was someone else. But you should also know that the military and USG get shitty about that stuff – at least, they do now. And the Lefties seem to hate it more than anyone else – look at the media hatred for PMCs. There’s some of it on the right, but by my (faulty) memory, it seemed like the people on Team Blue really hate that stuff and a segment of the American population certainly doesn’t like it. I think we should bring back the Flying Tigers, but that would allow non-state actors to have scary flying planes and tanks and other icky bad stuff that (somehow) only governments should have. That seems to be the source of the hard “No” from that crowd.
Having lived through a coup d’etat while abroad, I was under no illusions that GWB would send Seal Team Six to extract me if things went south. Nor do I feel I was entitled to such. No one forced me to live in that kind of place and I was willing to accept the consequences of my choices.
Yeah, well, it’s a little different when you’re leading the junta HM.
HM, filibuster extraordinaire?
I could see him using his linguistics knowledge to easily communicate with the locals and find the elements in society willing to help him come to power.
That is literally the plot to Out of the Silent Planet
Well except for the whole come to power part…
I can see HM as Ransom.
Thomas Massie gets it – the waste and graft is epic and nobody wants to look at it and jeopardize their Lockheed Martin and Raytheon campaign donations.
Before the Cold War ended, all of the services except the Marine Corps were much larger than today – but they seemed to be far more careful with how they spent their money. We didn’t need laser and gps guided munitions or a million-dollar smart missile to take out every target that popped up. If a artillery wasn’t available, a Vietnam era A-6 or A-7 dropping unguided iron bombs worked just fine. Now there is this weird philosophy that every thing has to be smart and really expensive. My air team had a laser designater – but it was usually used just to show pilots the target: “Drop your cluster-bombs over there on those guys, not us”.
I think we’re a bit squeamish about collateral damage, and that is why.
Frankly, I don’t think we should be in a situation where we care about it much. I’m in the punitive expedition or total war camp.
Same. I’m also If your going to do it, do it right camp. The kill the men, take the women camp. The everything on the table even nukes camp. The If your not willing to commit genocide than it’s probably not worth it camp.
Agreed. If you are going to start shit, be prepared to have large piles of dead women and babies. If you are not willing to do that, then you shouldn’t be starting shit.
See Siege of Rouen.
See, also Magdeburg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Magdeburg
(of course, there is an endless list of these).
True.
Rouen is topmost in my mind only because that is currently the time period in which I am writing.
When I was in law school, there was a Judge Advocate who wrote a law review piece for “The Army Lawyer” asking if “the common law norms of international law” had changed regarding collateral damage in light of the availability of PGMs. I think it’s a terrible idea from a military perspective, but it is amazing how every bomb that goes off target and kills a civilian is now seen as a war crime. Dumb bombs occasionally drop off the rails and you look and say, “Uh, oh. That wasn’t supposed to happen.”
Even smart bombs do, too. I was testing an AGM-114 under very controlled circumstances and it came off the rail fine, climbed up….and then disappeared into what appeared to be the ionosphere. I lost sight of it. I was looking 6 km out in front of me when I saw the impact in the ground about a 1km left and forward of where I was flying. Turns out the missile had never leveled off at the seeker-head’s gimbal limits like it’s supposed to and instead did a giant loop and fell back to Earth.
My high school English teacher flew daylight bombing raids over Germany. He didn’t seem to have lost any sleep over collateral damage notions; And he was a profoundly moral and good man and not afraid to shy from those kinds of discussions.
Both of these are tied to another strain of thought here that was also circulated in the military officer publications back in the day and it has to do with a populace knowing it’s been defeated. We have gotten so good, so precise, and try so hard to leave the people “out of the war” as much as possible that in the aftermath, they don’t even know they’ve been defeated. It makes the peace a lot harder when the local population barely notices that you’ve wiped out the local government leadership and now you’re claiming you’ve ‘conquered’ and want to build the “what comes after.”
PGMs = Precision Guided Misses?
This makes me think of Hyacks discussion on how the common law around pollution is a product of the technology available to tie (or not) pollution to particular polluters.
Gah. Are PGMs Precision Guided Missiles?
Munitions, I believe.
Give Tundra the kewpie doll. It’s Precision Guided Munitions, of which missiles are one kind.
Sorry.
They are all missiles, anything thrown or launched is a missile.
They are all missiles, anything thrown or launched is a missile.
*Throws paper airplane at Jarflax*
If you write me a letter explaining the steps of a mass to Baldur you can make it a missal missive mistletoe missile
“Precision Guided Misses”
There’s got to be a killer marketing idea in there.
The cost of it all is about strategic offsets. Everything being smart flows from that, and the natural economy of scale.
“Drop your cluster-bombs over there on those guys, not us”.
An important, but tough task for some pilots…
We trained on talking them on to targets without it, but we really liked that laser – took a lot of guess-work out of it. Once you got a Harrier, F-18, or Cobra aimed at an illuminated target, it was dead. Guns, missiles, or bombs – guided or unguided – it didn’t really matter. Saw unguided practice 500 lb bombs dropped from an F-18 hit illuminated targets metal-on-metal. The aircraft’s targeting computers are that good.
Wha…?
/ILARNG
Always apropos – Green Beret & Friendly FAC
“Hey Google”
It’s primarily because we’re asking the military to do things it shouldn’t be doing.
War is hell. Yet the USA is intent on continuously waging low-intensity conflicts that require a level of nuance and control on the battlefield that simply cannot be achieved. We try to gloss over it with technology and communications, yet the reality remains the same. The military operates most effectively when the constraints are removed and it is in full battle mode.
We labor under the illusion that the military can be used to nation-build, to right every global wrong, to change cultures, and to do it without offending sensibilities. Because of this, we attempt to use the military for far more than we should, diluting its effectiveness and creating conflict where there should be none.
Why are we doing it? That’s a good question for which probably range from the totally corrupt to the well-intentioned but horribly misguided.
Bring them home. And make it clear that when the US military shows up, it is a very bad thing for everyone.
A victim of our own success with Axis powers after WWII. Germany, Japan, and Italy taught us that nation building was possible. O.k. maybe not Italy.
Nation re-building seems to be occasionally possible.
Nation building is not.
We basically kept Germany into a capitalist half and a socialist half – and then when the socialists went broke the capitalists felt sorry for them and let them ruin the capitalist half, too. Italy is a socialist toilet now, and Japan seems to want to be one. Maybe in 10 years South Korea will be just as stupid. Viet Nam completely fell and their socialism didn’t even last two full generations. The military winners seem to be the ultimate losers.
And yet these hell-hole toilet countries are richer, more prosperous, healthier, and happier than most of their neighbors and haven’t launched a single military adventure against us since then.
With failures like that, who needs success?
Part of the problem is there are enough sociopaths in the high-ranking military (doesn’t even need to be anything but a small minority) who want to expand its scope. And with the sociopaths in Congress (an obvious majority) they will always find each other. The only thing that stops them is bankruptcy.
Mostly, the military executes the mission that our civilian overlords tell us to execute.
The guy who gets promoted is the guy who figures out how to do the stupid shit that you want us to do, not the guy who points out that what you want us to do is stupid.
Exactly. Same as every large organization.
An army Captain was sitting on staff to a General, and overheard him discussing a route that took his Armored division over a bridge. The Captain steped in and said, “Excuse me sir, but that bridge is not rated for the kind of weight our armored traffic will require.”. The General nodded and then continued, not heeding the Captains advice. Once again the captain stood and said “Sir with all due respect, i studied civil engineering at West Point, and that bridge will not support our equipment”. The General looked at him and motioned for him to sit down. He then continued not changing his brief. The captain couldn’t believe it and stood up once more, when the General turned to him and said
“Captain Sit down and Shut Up”.
“Sir you didn’t make General sitting down and shutting up”,
“True, but that’s how i made Major”.
In my experience in battalion and regimental briefings, it was senior NCOs who had to make those kinds of observations to staff officers.
There was a similar but more extreme example in Dan Carlin’s Ghosts of the Ostfront. A Russian general decreed some large unit of troops would go across the river. None of them could swim. Even though rafts or bridge builders were known to be on the way, no officers would suggest delaying the few hours needed.
The entire unit drowned save a handful of men. As each officer told their CO about the annihilation of the unit, each CO was furious but agreed it was better to follow the General’s order immediately. And so on it went up the ladder.
OT: Why can’t our politicians be classy like Europe’s?
War is the continuation of politics by other means.
“Aggressive negotiations”
I’ll let the Glibertariat hash out the details and point out the flaws in my thinking in the comments.
This is my take from a philosophical standpoint. I think the system should be federalized like it is supposed to be. States should maintain ground and other forces with varying levels of training/professionalism and responsible for staffing/funding them independent of the feds. States could coordinate defense strategies in conjunction with the federal forces and be called by the federal government for common defense*. The federal forces would consist of elite infantry units and an air/naval force that would be sufficient to protect our (and ally**) commerce the world over and provide any force projection and get-our-people-out operations that we would need. We would not have a massive, standing federal army, nor would we occupy bases in countries all over the world. Extenuating circumstances notwithstanding we would adhere to the Monroe Doctrine and *if* it was deemed in the interest of the country to intervene in some foreign conflict we would establish clear victory conditions. Get in, accomplish the mission and get out***, no nation-building.
*May require an amendment to compel States to participate when called upon.
**not that we should be engaging in entangling alliances. We would refrain from this.
***Preferably no ‘boots-on-the-ground’ though.
Anyway, that’s my 2 cents. Pick it apart as you please.
States could coordinate defense strategies in conjunction with the federal forces and be called by the federal government for common defense*.
I’m actually… Against compelling the states to participate. Many State Militas refused to invade Canada, in part because their job was to defend the country, not invad another.
I was thinking of it as in a defensive scenario.
Nowhere near as good a warship name as “A Frank Exchange of Views.”
You want to talk about war-criminals?
Fuck Madeliene Albright, Les Aspin/William Cohen, and Bill Clinton for coming up with ‘Coercive Diplomacy’.
i.e. We’ll bomb you until you do what we say.
Kosovo, Somalia, Bosnia, Sudan …
FWIW, the whole cheap Walmart ammo is real. I just picked up some .40 & .45 range ammo for cheap. I wasn’t greedy. I already have a fuck-ton, and left some on the shelf for the next guy.
They’ve been out of that for a long time at my local store.
I think that serious consideration needs to be given to the impact of drones will have in the near future.
I’d seriously reduce the Air Force and replace it with gobs of drones. We simply don’t need to put expensive hard to replace pilots into air planes. Load up a drone with ordnance and let the video game whizzes fly them.
Same with the Navy. Fuck carriers. You can launch drones from just about any type of ship. Again, the idea would be that you could have cheap drones flying over shipping pretty much all day/night very easily. If pirates attack, whatever kids are running the drones could pretty easily shoot up the pirates. All of which is more cost effective than pilots in a plane.
Force projection on land is also probably going to undergo big changes due to advances in robotics.
There are huge holes in my plans, but I feel like not enough people are really thinking about the new world that AI, robotics and other tech advances are making. Like the battleship admirals who couldn’t bring themselves to recognize that naval air power would completely change what the navy did.
From my humble perch in the tech community, drones, ICBM/cruse missiles, SF and “cyber” (you must say it with a sneer for the naming convention) are going to be how force is projected in the foreseeable future. Boots on the ground are going to be for holding logistic and population centers and for administration of the same.
The drone attack on the Saudi oil facilities should be a warning to everyone. A terrorist group was able to launch a successful air attack on the cheap.
If I was a military planner, I’d be trying to figure out how I could stop a similar attack against a military encampment or a ship in port.
That’s part of what I was thinking about. Good luck with that. I don’t think it is possible at our current technology level. Force projection can be done from great distances now. Holding territory to protect it isn’t really a thing. Very small, unstoppable payloads (be them drones, missiles, data packets like Stuxnet, or six dudes with millions of dollars of US training or $2 in box cutting technology) are able to bypass anything approaching a “line”. Offensive forces only need to be very, very small.
Said another way, we are all asymmetrical forces now.
And I think this tech tree has a lot of potential growth that we haven’t tapped into yet. “let the video game whizzes fly them”. We only have people flying them because of bureaucratic inertia. There is no technological reason to have the human brain in the control loop of a drone if you have enough financing. Someone more agile than our current military is going to figure that out. Someone is going to crack open all the old research on boids and everyone else is going to have a Traumatic Bladder Ejection moment.
Someone is going to unleash a Stuxnet-like weapon on a conventional military, and all those impressive automagic targeting that Drake is talking about are going to start up on their own.
From a purely technological POV, we are in the opposite position as we were in WWI. Then, the technology of artillery, smokeless powder, and communications made it very hard to move a line. Right now, it is very, very, very easy to project force from a very small, very agile military power center over long distances.
Eventually some new revelation will come around and things will change, like they did in WWII when a mechanized infantry hop-scotched the Maginot line. But for now the technology dictates a military conflict without fronts.
Yeah, apparently I”m currently building Skynet.
However, there’s a non-zero chance this tech will be used to create hypercompetent sexbots, so *shrug emoji*
Skynet becomes self aware and realizes an outright war would not achieve it’s objectives so uses sexbots to enslave humanity.
You are doing the lords work. There is literally nothing worse than a marginally competent sebot.
“There is no technological reason to have the human brain in the control loop of a drone if you have enough financing.”
” Right now, it is very, very, very easy to project force from a very small, very agile military power center over long distances.”
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I’m having a hard time squaring these two points. It’s either very very easy (and therefore inexpensive) or it’s expensive. It could be that offense is cheap and defense is expensive, but even then there comes a point where the offensive becomes a defensive (like, whoever enters Afghanistan) and the bureaucratic inertia is the de facto “winner”.
My use of the word “small” does not mean “inexpensive”. I mean it can be done in the back of a Honda Civic or in a 1st Month Free storage unit.
But yeah, agile force projection absolutely can be done on the cheap. How much would it cost a motivated person to buy some black powder, deck screws, and walkie talkies at a hardware store and shut down every airport in a city if they didn’t mind getting arrested or killed?
It is within the US technological capability to wipe any city or logistical item in Afghanistan off the map. We haven’t because we do not have the will and desire to. In a real, no shit war, will our enemy lack the will and desire to shut down our airports at the cost of 6 dudes? Will they lack the will and desire to erase cities at the cost of a few million dollars?
We just had one lone actor kill a few active duty, on base, military members because he thought the trade off was worth it.
” We haven’t because we do not have the will and desire to.”
Thank you, General Ripper.
Seriously, I think the will withers once the leaders realize a swift, total victory doesn’t get them anything personally. Yeah, sure the objective is met – and quickly –, but then I have to go get a real job? Fuck that, they’ll take the cushy Deep State management/maintenance job for life over successfully meeting objectives and then going home.
Hey, I come from a private security background. One of the bedrock assumptions of this world is that you analyze actors based only on their technological capabilities first. Only after that can you maybe look at what they might choose to do or not to do.
The General Ripper sneer is incomparable with proper risk assessment.
” Load up a drone with ordnance and let the video game whizzes fly them.”
Eventually the video game whizzes will be required to fly 4 drones at a time and that will be their undoing.
Well that or people go to their houses with clubs.
Well the kid could fly one of those drones and the other three would be those boids that Leap linked to above. And if you destroy the one drone that the human is flying, then the control could seamlessly shift to one of the boids.
There are huge holes in my plans, but I feel like not enough people are really thinking about the new world that AI, robotics and other tech advances are making.
There are a lot of people thinking about it. I personally know some of them. I’ve worked on projects associated with some aspects.
DARPA has been playing with computer vision and AI for a while now. I did some work in that space in 2010.
The Marine Corps has been interested in autonomous drones for years. I participated in a competition they hosted in 2011 to design recon drones that could navigate a series of waypoints via GPS and capture high resolution images of a target.
The Navy has been interested in autonomous subs for a decade plus.
Most of the advances these days are in scale. Having a few drones deployed as a test program is one thing. Deploying new tech densely enough to establish a network across the entire theater isn’t easy.
Good. I’m glad smart people are looking into that sort of stuff and not relying on me to do all the thinking for them.
And it is all good that they are doing stuff like this, but it still seems like we are focused on building more carriers and the next generation of fighter planes. Just like most countries were trying to out do each other building bigger and badder battleships right before WWII. Only to find out that those quirky guys who had been goofing around with the idea of launching planes from a ship had made all those ships irrelevant.
Everyone who matters in the DoD acquisition side has been thinking about this long before you thought it needed thinking about. There is a reason programs like JSF and F22 cost what they do and not all of it is scope creep. Some of it is because they were built as communications platforms of an edge network designed to operate in combat environment with the exception being they would eventually serve as C&C nodes for drone swarms and the like. Consider the acquisition life-cycle and when these platforms first entered development and you’ll see just how how far ahead we are in terms of vision. Other elements of that cost go to how our acquisition environment is structured in the first place and the inherent cost of that structure. The US does defense acquisition differently than almost every other country, and for good reason. However, there is a real cost to it.
*expectation
How big?
Do you want to be the world’s cop? Then no number is too big.
You want to defend the rights of Americans, use force as a last resort, let other nations pay for their own defense and play a non-interventionist role? You could easily do that and still have the most powerful military in the world for (I’m guessing) half of what we spend now.
ISOLATIONIST!
*hisses, points finger*
Non-interventionist. I’ll voluntarily trade with anyone.
Even Canada?
Ewww.
Not sure Canada has anything I want? But if they did…
Great questions Ozy.
I think to answer this question in a way that is not arbitrary, we should consider the purpose of a government (let us take for granted a government, admittedly a large stolen base)
If we find that the correct place of a government is to protect the rights of her citizen’s then, there is a lot of leeway in just how powerful you could want your military (almost infinite power required to achieve). I think a more reasonable, and perhaps nearly achievable goal would be the protection of the rights of people residing within the country, and that specifically the military is that portion of the government that protects the rights of people living within the country from foreign governments. At one point I would have said, all you really need is the nuclear triad, and all the rest can be scrapped, if this is your sole purpose. But it seems to me, that there are areas where a nation or group of people may err in it’s treatment of the people our government is sworn to protect, but that do not rise to the level of requiring nuclear annihilation. A good example may be in destroying the property of our people, or kidnapping (nuclear annihilation may be a bit counter productive there). And thus a small and capable force of marines, naval vessels and air-power could be required to protect the rights of people living in the US.
I draw the line at people living here, because by physically leaving, there is little that can be done to guarantee your rights- it would require the complete overthrow of every totalitarian government in the world where Americans decided to live (aka, almost all of them). The balance there, is three-fold. We must not forget the wrong done to those paying for a military, especially to those who need it not. Most American taxpayers need just the military capable of protecting the rights of those living here (naturally, we should end extraterritorial taxation as part of this policy). A military capable of protecting all Americans everywhere would impose more wrongs than the rights it would achieve. Secondly, it would be an unachievable goal. Whenever we send the government out to do the impossible it results in waste and death (e.g. war on drugs, war on terror, etc.). Thirdly, a government with this power would undoubtedly become corrupt and impossible to overthrow if it became tyrannical itself. For these three reasons, the aims of the military policy must at most be limited to protecting the rights of people residing in the US from foreign threats.
Why not go to something less than this, then? Why not protect only the rights that extend within the state, e.g. loss of property outside the US would not be an issue for our government? Well, for one, because the tools needed to enforce those rights would likely already be required to protect the rights of US citizens anyway. The borders of this policy get a bit fuzzy in international waters/airspace, but, given the geographic composition of the US, I think it would necessarily need to be extended to those areas where a US citizen has the absolute right to be. Otherwise little could be done to ensure the safety of Americans traveling to the far flung reaches of our state. As others have astutely pointed out, the strenght of this force should nto be tied directly to GDP, but hopefully to the needs we have of it. I would strongly suggest that the most fundamental parts of this apparatus be always kept well funded and operational (i.e. the ability to defend the homeland). and that operational capabilities beyond our shores (for the waging of punitive actions or recovery of property) be scaled to need, and considered against the loss of rights that occurs due to marauders.
You do raise an interesting question about us being the most powerful, or imagining, say, China Russia and maybe 3 other countries to be the strongest. In an ideal world of course we would be the strongest, but without all the adventurism we’ve gone on lately. However, I’m not sure how much different the world would be for Americans with the size and scope of military I argue for compared to the current state of affairs. Atrocities still happen to people who travel overseas to countries which are not friendly to us, and little is done about it, while in both scenarios I do not see the wholesale invasion or curtailing of American rights abroad as likely.
I think I agree with everything you’ve written here, Lack.
Your imagined world where we are not the unassailable military leader is inevitable.
China will be taking that slot at some point. Maybe only a decade or two, maybe 50 years. But their numbers in a first World economy mean they will have immense wealth to spend us under the table.
India will follow behind. Eventually their leaders will fix their broken political system and then their justice system… And eventually they too will have immense wealth.
And they might be even scarier than China. A less dysfunctional India should scare the crap out of Pakistan.
Then there is the technology side of things. A simple drone with a sniper rifle mounted on it combined with the software to run it renders infantry pretty much unusable. And the example should be enough to imagine how millions spent on that solution could counter billions in spending. And that future is essentially here. Loads of little states (Israel) have them, and China is already selling them.
We will still have the lead for a while, but eventually advanced computers and new manufacturing technologies will blunt our advantage.
Impossible with a centrally-planned economy, which the Chicoms are never going to give up. Not saying they won’t try, but they’ll fail even more spectacularly than the USSR. Just because the US’s creeping socialism is causing severe cracks in its military (despite its spending, or perhaps because of it), there is no reason to assume it will be supplanted by “better socialism”. There is no third way.
Yeah… The future is hard to predict, but there were similar feeling about the USSR. I’m not sure Chinese military is as strong as we think it is.
No one talks about the fact that despite all of the Chinese sabre-rattling in SE Asian waters, the US cruised a carrier battle group through there and some strategic bombers, too. Just to prove the point that we could and the Chinese couldn’t do shit about it. That’s why they’re building those islands – to have basically man-made shore defenses and airstrips to counter our CVNs.
The Chinese people factor into this as well. The chi-com govt has a boot on their necks. What will happen when that boot is called away to war?
One of the fascinating things I learned about the Korean War – many hundreds of thousands of the Chinese troops who took part in that first massive incursion where actually veterans of Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist army. When Mao won, he just had most the Nationalist army enlisted absorbed into the PAL and never discharged them. So having them charge the American guns in human wave attacks was a win win for Mao.
I bet a lot of kids from Hong Kong get drafted if China goes to war again.
I have some thoughts on this from my time there. I think I’ll save that for a different article.
I am sure it is not.
At the end of the day, in modern warfare, industry and innovation trump size of forces. WWII showed this very clearly. If you are the dominant economic power, the only way you can lose a real death struggle is if you are over run before you can retool. The United States in 1944 produced $42 billion in munitions. The axis powers throughout the entire war combined to produce $70 billion. You are simply not going to overcome that with a command economy, because it will not be capable of the innovation and growth needed to create the base.
My comment on ranking militaries by spending. And some of us might find this scary.
An all-volunteer force is expensive. When you back out what militaries spend on personnel, we are no longer the #1 military in the world. Somewhere in the past 10 years, China surpassed us for spending on equipment, materials, and development.
Swissy hit the nail on the head for the best way to reduce our military spending. Reduce active duty and increase reserve/guard and shift focus to defending our interests and not others.
Have you ever tried to use any tools or equipment made in china? They look like tools. They feel like tools. Try to use one and you will find out real fast what the term ‘cargo cult’ means.
Generally true, but China has been stealing US tech for years and it building some world class military equipment in some areas.
Tax payers are subsiding the true cost of the imports, if piracy requires a large military insurance policy. The biggest problem is the debt, doesn’t matter what we want or think is right because the interest keeps growing. At some point carriers will be mothballed, planes will be grounded.
The Chinese can try but even socialism does not revoke the laws of economics.
There are a lot of hidden costs in being the Big Brother. Costs like Vet Services, the human toll (VN, etc), the graft. The price of politics includes the cost of politicians.
Eeeew!
Also, at her age? In 2017?
There is one idea that I have long had, but that wars with my belief that tradition is important in military affairs (tradition in the sense of unit history, regimental honors etc., not doing things the way we have always done them). I do not believe we are well served by having competing armed services. One of the big drivers of pork is the competition between the 3 principle services for funds. This leads to redundancy, waste and probably most importantly prioritizing of ‘sexy’ weapon systems over boring mundane expenses like training and maintenance.
I am not sure that the army and navy could coexist in a single organization, and they by their nature are set up to operate in different locales, but I am pretty strongly convinced that the air force should be put back under the army, and it’s mission focus brought back to operating as a combined force with ground troops. Strategic bombers are sexy, but their basic mission is morally questionable and much less effective militarily than well coordinated close support.
TL:DR I would greatly reduce our expenditures on things like the F35 and B2 and increase training and maintenance budgets, and expenditures on less expensive but more effective weapons.
I do not believe we are well served by having competing armed services.
You mean… having each service with their own 3+ sets of uniforms that change every 10 years due to some Sergeant Major getting a hard on is not an efficient system?
But those floppy black hats look soooooooo cool leon!
Not as cool as this.
That doesn’t change every 10 years, or every 100 years for that matter.
Has the Army settled on a field uniform? I got out of the Guard a month before they would have finally handed me at not cost to me, some of the those shitty bright grey utilities and forced me to wear them to drill. No way was I ever going to pay for that crap out of my pocket. As a wise old Sergeant once told me (as we were buying batteries with our own money) – this place is supposed to pay me and give me stuff, not the other way around.
Hahaha. i think they already are on a new iteration of field uniforms and PT’s. But now they want a new Service Uniform.
What the fuck for?
Ohhh. I forgot about bribes and kickbacks. Taxpayer money doesn’t steal itself, does it.
Hey now, Marine digis have remained the same for the better part of two decades now.
Full disclosure – I wear cut-off BDU bottoms pretty much exclusively (I’ll grudgingly put on long pants if the weather requires it). Consequently, I get to indulge my life-long love of shopping for milsurp and wear BDUs from all around the world (special shout out to Romania for keeping the British Type 56 pattern alive and well). MARPATs are, far and away, the best, hardest wearing bottoms currently produced. They are my favorite work pants.
Yeah, they’re pretty durable. I got too fat for mine, but they are still in great condition overall considering the abuse they went through when I was on active duty.
Frank J. Wrote Nuke the moon, that would create world Peace real fast, then we park like a Rattler in the sun waiting for anything to strike out at,
I would like to point out that all of the nail biting over foreign powers is a distraction.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” – HL Menken
This is not a trivial point. Get a good look at foreign militaries. They are shit. None of them could defeat a medium sized state’s national guard. Not only are they poorly equipped, they are poorly trained and don’t have the mentality it takes. We are in no danger of invasion and aside from the occasional overconfident belligerent morons and pirates international shipping is in no danger. Those problems could easily be handled by privateers.
The real threat here, everywhere an all throughout time to people in power is its own native population. You can bet your ass the people in power here know that and while they are foaming at the mouth about Russia! and Ukraine! they have their sights trained on you. Don’t believe it? Ask Swallwell and Beta. They aren’t desperately trying to disarm the American people for our own good. You can count on that like the sunrise.
All of the Ooogaboogabooga! about foreigners trying to destroy our democracy is horseshit to keep us distracted from guys like Nadler who is openly saying that choosing a president by election is just too dangerous. Who is trying to destroy our democracy? The Ruskies or Elizabeth Warren who wants to abolish the electoral college?
We are uninvadvable. We are undefeatable. That is regarding any foreign powers. The real threat is right here at home trying to slip a chain on us while we are distracted scanning the horizon for non-existent invaders.
So what do we do about that?
Drink?
Lampposts?
Go back 100 years and encourage conservative and libertarian kids to enter academia and the arts?
What about the argument that we’re better off if the rest of the world is as free as possible as well?
I can think of lots of ways in which the world would be a better place but the fact remains that you cant save people from themselves. Other countries are shit because their culture is shit. You cant change that.
Democracy in Afghanistan? We have been there 18 years and what have we accomplished? Jackety fuckin’ shit, that’s what. We are just now getting some people to quietly admit attempting to nation build there was a huge mistake. No shit. None of the asshats that wanted to go there never picked up a history book? Want to go to war in Afghanistan? You go there, turn it into rubble and leave…but I guess no connected contractors get rich like that.
The rest of the world is already as free as possible.
Oh, sure, Suthen, just piss on the whole premise of my article, why doncha?!?
Actually, I agree. We’re so far out in front of the rest of the world it’s ridiculous. We could easily (1) pull back, stop sticking our nose in other people’s business, and just defend our own borders; (2) maintain a small, integrated, capable force (SHAMELESS PLUG FOR MY MARINE KKKKOORRRPPSSSS!!!! OOOOO-RRRAAAAAAHHHHHH!!”); (3) continue with a research and tech component to keep us ahead of emerging threats; (4) and have a Navy capable of protecting our shipping and other interests around the globe.
It would probably cost something like 2% of GDP indexed to right now and still keep us lightyears ahead of most nations, and save on a ton of seen and unseen costs.
YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUT!
Suthen and Ozy – I think you’re both right. Look at the Germans; the Luftwaffe probably couldn’t put together a flyable air wing at present. I don’t know what sort of shape the Bundeswehr is in but I bet that the First MarDiv with a little air support and some M1A2’s could make them sweat.
For my money, I’d wish for a system like the Swiss, both governmentally and militarily (shout-out to Swissy). I like the idea of subsidiary government and neutrality – with large, pointed teeth.
Consider the Falklands war. Argentina never had any interest in the Falklands. They didnt even know the islands were there until the Brits discovered them. They never made a claim on the islands until….their socialist politics were collapsing the economy and people were getting their pitchforks and ropes out. All of a sudden…WAR! to retake what was rightfully theirs. Actually Argentina asked Chile if they could stage a war with them first and Chile told them to go fuck themselves. So, off to the Falklands they went.
Imaginary hobgoblins keep the pitchforks at bay.
From what I have heard about the krauts I could conquer the country myself with what I have in my gun safe. Russia has a single aircraft carrier and it has to have a tug boat follow it around because the damned thing is constantly breaking down. Who else is there? China? We can sink their whole navy without setting foot outside the US. What are they gonna do? Swim over here?
Actual conversation:
Other guy: “I heard a good argument the other day as to why we have to waste so much money. It is necessary.”
Me: “Oh, what was the argument?”
Other guy: “I cant remember.”
Me: “Ah, so it was bullshit from a bullshit artist, no doubt with a vested interest.”
Other guy: “Now that you put it like that…”
Trump is not the first to have realized this. He is, however, the first to enact foreign policy bearing these facts in mind and the strategic implications thereof.
Get a good look at foreign militaries. They are shit.
While the US certainly outclasses everyone else, I don’t think it is accurate to say that all other foreign militaries are shit. Many of the militaries under the US security umbrella have atrophied (sometimes to the point of irrelevance), but many of the nations that could go in the adversarial column have decent to strong militaries. Particularly China and Russia are fairly strong, and if they ever got together and rounded up a few small fries to pad out the team with their own Tripartite Pact I do think they could be able to establish domination over the three “old world” continents. No one is capable of conquering the US, and I think even the Americas as a whole are out of reach, but it is entirely possible for some foreign nations to establish a new world order without subjugating the USA.
California’s economy is the fifth largest economy in the world. Additionally China’s public sector is still larger than their private sector. China is a house of cards. Russia is a force to be reckoned with….if you are stupid enough to invade Russia. Outside Russia? They aren’t shit. Have you google earthed their only warm water port in Syria? Have a look. I have a bigger dock on my property on the bayou.
Suthen, I’m not so sure California is on our side.
Bits of it are…
By the way, pay attention to the news in the next few days. Camp Pendleton and Miramar are going NUTS now. Usually precedes some kind of Overseas Contingency Action or another.
Nuke the moon, Frank J
https://www.imao.us/index.php/a-realistic-plan-for-world-peaceakanuke-the-moon/
Britain needs its own Mueller report on Russian ‘interference’
The British political system has become thoroughly compromised by Russian influence. It’s high time its institutions – including the media – woke up to that fact. In 2016, both the United Kingdom and the United States were the targets of Russian efforts to swing their votes. The aim was to weaken the alliances that had constrained Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, such as the European Union and Nato.
The efforts in both countries had much in common. They were aided by a transatlantic cast of characters loosely organised around the Trump and Brexit campaigns. Many of them worked in concert and interacted with Russians close to the Kremlin. The outcome in both countries was also eerily similar. Both countries have been at war with themselves in the three years since, pulling them back from the international stage at a time when Putin has consolidated his position in Crimea, Ukraine, Syria and beyond.
Our Washington-based research firm, Fusion GPS, conducted much of the early investigations into Russia’s support of the Trump campaign, aided by our colleague Christopher Steele, the former head of MI6’s Russia desk. While our initial focus was on Russian meddling in US politics, it has since become increasingly clear that Britain’s political system has also been deeply affected by Russian influence operations.
There the similarities end. For the past three years, the US has undergone a messy and boisterous effort to understand the extent of Russian influence on the 2016 election and beyond. There have been multiple congressional investigations with the power to compel documents and testimony from witnesses. There was a two-year investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.
I…don’t know if this is satire or not.
I have to remind myself that it is immoral to call for shooting leftists in the street; they cannot be reasoned with and they will never quit trying to destroy everything I value, but it is still immoral to kill them.
If they’re advocating taking away your rights through use of force, is it really wrong?
The only problem being is who do you shoot…..the true believers? The useful idiots? The intellectual leaders? Where does it stop? Sulla’s proscriptions come to mind.
Sinistra delenda est.
“The only problem being is who do you shoot…..the true believers? The useful idiots? The intellectual leaders? ”
Yes. I think Canada is still mad at us about that.
In the end it doesn’t matter right or wrong. In war all rules and morals are out the window. That’s why they call it…you know…war.
The only reason we aren’t shooting them in the street is because we can afford not to, for now. I hope it stays that way. The best way to keep it that way is by making sound arguments and keeping people in a good enough position that they have too much to lose by going commie.
The left’s constant war on wealth is about making the majority of citizens poor and thus more likely to go commie. Failing that they are attempting to import leftists in as great a number as possible.
As long as too many people. have too much to lose we wont have blood in our streets.
Killing commies immoral? You sure?
So you are saying embrace the hate?
It is only immoral if you believe them to be capable of moral knowledge and moral action. Otherwise, they are animals.
I believe them to have that capacity. I also believe that they have deliberately chosen immorality. Socialism is nothing but envy dressed in the skinsuit of compassion.
Yes. Anyone who doesn’t believe that can watch two minutes of the impeachment proceedings and it is plain as day. Deliberate immorality. There is a reason communist countries try to squash religion.
I encourage you to read Haidt and the surrounding research. I am skeptical as to whether they are fully capable of moral knowledge. Furthermore, the core axioms of Marxist philosophy deny that humans posses inherent moral knowledge. I expect they should reap what they sew.
It’s not satire. It’s written by Steele’s partner.
But yes, Biritain needs its own investigation to cost millions of dollars and result in bupkis. I think it’s funny how the Mueller report is being used as some sort of success.
It’s The Guardian, so yes. Whether they meant it that way or not.
I’ve been too busy to post or even lurk much with the new job. Krugnut’s is all but calling for violence against Republicans. Once again, little spite gnome is spiteful:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/12/opinion/climat
e-change-republicans.html
“Page not found”
But the rest of the text is there…
My bad, managed to break up the link
Oh, so he’s the spirit guide for the Virginia Democrats
Good God, don’t read the comments.
Um…okay…
Well she’ll be doing it for food after she gets socialism, so might as well practice.
Poor Millennials
Lol.
Damnit, I have stuff I need to get done this weekend.
Season 4 dropped, apparently.
Sean,
I’ll buy the pizza. I’m getting nothing done this weekend.
Thanks for the heads up.
#MeToo
Okay, kids, we’re about to descend through the magical 10K layer at which electromagnetic radiation suddenly changes properties, so I’ll see you all another time!
Thanks for chiming in.
Is that a joke… or is taht why you have to turn your phone off?
4:00?
Sounds like his airplane WiFi is turning off. Usually happens at 10k.
The rules for using portable electronic devices on airplanes date back to the original cordless shavers. A process was put into place to “prove” they would not interfere with the avionics (back when avionics were analog computers and all electric motors put out radio waves).
This antiquated rule now applies to portable computers, tablets, smart phones, dumb phones, and pretty much any consumer electronics. The rules basically says, “we presume they are safe during non-critical phases of flight”, i.e. anything other than landing and takeoff. This is where the 10,000 ft rule comes from.
Each airline is allowed to do the testing to show that these devices are safe to use on modern airplanes using modern digital avionics during all phases of flight. But that would put the liability for any undesirable “event” on the airline.
So the airline says “fuck it” and requires you to turn off all your devices during descent through 10,000 ft.