This is the first of what will hopefully be a multi-part series, written by a number of different writers, in which the author attempts to do the best job of writing a piece in favor of a policy he does not support. Then everyone can tell him why it is a freaking bad idea in the comments.
With that said, lets get started by turning on our
[standard libertarian disclaimer]
I am going to start by describing what I think is the best possible Universal Basic Income (UBI) plan, how it would work, what it would cost, and what benefits it would provide. This will be a pure plan. Then, because of one part that I think is too far outside the Overton Window, I will discuss an alternative, more politically feasible plan, that is not as good but would converge with the pure plan with time.
The basic goal of the UBI is to eliminate poverty once and for all. In order to do that, every American citizen [side note: I am generally an open borders guy, but if you are just a resident let your home country send you a check] would receive a monthly check. Each adult (18+) would receive $1040 per month. Each child would receive $370. This is based on the 2019 federal poverty guidelines with the adjustment that each adult gets the full amount for a single person household to avoid marriage penalties and the like. The amount of the check would adjust with inflation each year.
Thus, we have eliminated poverty among US citizens. Everyone gets a check that gets them above the poverty line.
The second part of the plan is to eliminate ALL transfer payments made by the federal government. There would be no more welfare, no more agricultural subsidies, no more WIC, no more social security payments, no more aid to foreign governments, etc. The government would still be spending a ton of money, but it would be on military and infrastructure and health care (Medicare, Medicaid and VA – I excluded them from transfer payments but an argument can be made for them being cut too) and other things that while maybe not entirely supported by Article I, Section 8, aren’t too far outside the realm of government services.
At this point, using a back of envelope calculation I did sometime in the recent past, you can pay for the UBI and balance the budget (well, maybe, I think to get it fully in balance requires some cutting of military spending, which would be a good thing) with a flat tax on all income at 35%. That seems high, and is, but it works out that due to the check, a family of four isn’t a net taxpayer unless their income exceeds about $97,000 ($96,685.71 to be exact). Also, the elimination of social security means that the FICA tax has been reduced from 15.3% to 2.9% (Medicare portion).
Benefits not yet mentioned:
- Lots of unemployed federal employees.
- Easier tax form, just a flat 35%, no deductions.
- The debt owed to the Social Security Trust Fund evaporates overnight.
That is the purest form. However, that just reduced a lot of people living on a $3000 a month social security check to poverty level, now living on $1040. This won’t fly.
It sucks, but we have to keep SS around for a while. The alternate plan would end Social Security slowly. All SS credits earned prior to the start of the UBI would be paid under the current schedule, but you could not earn any more. For those retired, nothing would change. Those retiring in the future would get a reduced SS payment depending on credits already earned, so those close to retirement might not notice a difference but those 10 to 20 years away would notice, and those 40 years away would basically not ever receive SS. I would slowly over time reduce the 12.4% Social Security tax. If it works out (I don’t know the math on this), maybe by .2% per year so that it is gone in 62 years.
A few generations down the road, SS would be gone and it would be the same as the original plan.
[/sld]
Destroy this idea in the comments.
I’ll say it before and I’ve said it again. A single means tested payment to adults (not kids) replaces everything else.
The obvious weakness in any UBI is that people will blow their check partying and then drag their starving child in front of every camera to show how they need more money.
While true, how often does that happen with welfare checks today?
Yes, however, with some existing programs, you are limited to how you can use that money. I’m sure that’s exactly why they did it that way. Of course, people get around it, but it’s at least *slightly* more difficult than if they just got a check.
We could arrest people for child endangerment who don’t properly provide for their kids.
If it is just adults, not my problem.
I’d be ok with that. All three of my kids are adopted, and 2 were taken away due to neglect, so I see what can happen. For adults, you just can’t force them to be responsible, so you might just have to let them fail.
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0535/6917/products/mistakesdemotivator.jpeg?v=1554328460
“All three of my kids are adopted, and 2 were taken away due to neglect…”
I’m sure you meant “taken away from their previous living situations due to neglect…”
Haha yes!
Utopia does not exist simply because humans can and will fail at life.
Any attempts to mandate success will only produce theft and misery.
It just means that the crooked shops that pay the cash money for the food stamps get to keep their cut. My dad’s thought was to give out free beans and rice at grocery stores for hungry people. You can get both for less than $1/lb, and that will feed a person for several meals. You’ll get pretty damned sick of it, but you won’t starve.
OMG, you expect poor people to cook? They don’t have the time since they all work three eight-hour jobs a day, plus spend six hours on the bus.
Seriously, though, preparing dried beans and grains is “hard” absent one of those new automatic pressure cooker thingies.
Worse yet, he wants to get them fat. All those carbs!
I wouldn’t say hard, just time consuming, with a lot of hands off time (and bland as hell if you don’t know how to season). Not to mention if you go with kidney beans, there will probably be some people who wouldn’t cook them right and get sick from them.
+1 salad bar vinegar soak
… beans and rice …
AOC approves.
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRACIST!!!!!!!!!!!111ONE!!
I don’t have anything but anecdotes, but I hear it’s not unusual for someone to burn through their food stamps by the middle of the month and come back for more.
Anecdotally, I’ve usually seen selling their foodstamps at half price for cold hard cash to buy drugs/booze/silly shit one doesn’t really need then hitting up the government for more. If that doesn’t work they turn to church funded charities for basic things like food. I have no problem with the church option I just wish it was most people’s default option, not government subsidy. And I abandoned religion a very long time ago.
My standard argument against UBI is that for some people, the extra paycheck will just enable bad behavior. They will take their check, and their kids’ checks, and blow it all on lottery tickets, booze, drugs, etc. Then the second week of the month, those people and their kids will be without food and shelter, the media will latch on, and before you know it the programs we have now will be reactivated to prevent people from starving or freezing to death.
I have written about my 21 year old daughter on this site. We kicked her out of the house a year ago. She’s completely irresponsible and spends what little she makes on junk food and trips to the bar. Giving her an extra $1000 a month won’t make her any more responsible, she’ll just develop even worse habits because she won’t have to work as hard.
There’s two ways to look at it though. The evidence suggests that the system helps make me people even more irresponsible dependents. By giving ordinary welfare rather than personal freedom and responsibility, you are reinforcing this dependency that others be responsible for you for life.
To teach real freedom and responsibility, at some level you must accept that people have the freedom to fuck up themselves and their lives.
I think that would require that there’s no backup plan after the money runs out. Which, for reasons stated above, all the backups will continue to exist.
A single mom we know is on food stamps, but drives an Escalade. Her son has nicer hockey gear than ours. She really knows how to manage money I guess…
Years ago I worked as a bag boy at a grocery store. Every 1st of the month we would be carrying out many carts of Food Stamp and WIC groceries to cars that, almost without fail, were far nicer than what any of us bag boys were driving.
that is absolutely infuriating.
“you want to police what poor people are allowed to wear, how they are allowed to look…”
That circulated a while back. First, the false premise of conflating poor people with people on welfare, including WIC, etc. Then the reverse logic – no, we aren’t telling you how you are “allowed” to look, we’re telling you that if you drive the Escalade, wear designer clothes, and get a $100 hair or nail job every week then you don’t need our support.
Consigned. I’ve loaded WIC food into cars I can’t afford even today on lawyer salary.
I was a cashier for years. I remember on food stamp day families would load up multiple carts full of lobster, steak, and other goodies I couldn’t afford to eat.
Most likely they were selling those for cash for booze, drugs, Escalade payments, etc.
The point is, if they can afford an Escalade they are clearly not poor.
I see you called that reverse logic above. Color me confused, but I don’t see why the government (taxpayers) should provide benefits to people that can clearly afford to support themselves.
” Every 1st of the month we would be carrying out many carts of Food Stamp and WIC groceries to cars”
I could never make it in the grocery business. You have foods stamps / WIC? Carry your own fucking groceries.
Counter plan. Complexes build on cheap land that provide housing, food and job training. If you are truly without options you get bused to one of these facilities in the middle of nowhere and if you want to improve your lot in life, take advantage of job training or unskilled work placement.
They used to have those – they were called workhouses, poorhouses, poor farms, etc. One of the most effective policies of those institutions was rigorous sexual segregation, even for married couples – women and young children in one dorm, teen boys and men in another.
There are lots of economies of scale with dormitory-style housing. You’d probably get your own room but might have to share a toilet and/or shower with others.
Note to Swiss: I think it would be possible to pay for the UBI with a national land tax, and then we could greatly reduce the income tax to pay for just what is left over. It didn’t occur to me while righting the article, nor did I know I would get cow-butted for it, or I would have included it as an alternative!
s/righting/writing/
*ominous moooooing in the background*
Send them a check?
Do you know how many people don’t have a bank account to cash it against? Check cashing fees are RACIST.
Fuck, there’s so many people unable to get IDs, how do you think they can cash a check?
Way to shitlord, shitlord.
Also, the world is going to end in 10 years, so why even bother?
Send them a prepaid Visa card?
If we can’t have straws, we certainly can’t have a bunch of junk plastic prepaid cards floating in the ocean.
Barcode tattoos for everyone’s forearm linked to a government account?
Sounds like a Nazi plan to me.
Fascist!
Also, way to other people without forearms.
So not woke.
Forehead tattoos?
What about counterfeit tattoos? Would be pretty easy to take a pic of someone’s tat and steal their money.
Ban sharpies! For the children!
I’m pretty sure this is how EBT works in a lot of places. You get a debit card and the benefits are loaded onto it.
Unfortunately yes. Reducing the stigma of using food stamps as if they’re using a regular debit or credit card.
If it must be a card, I want a bright red one with LEACH in large white letters in it. None of this nice design bullshit.
The irony of calling welfare payments a Oregon Trail card, if these noble recipients were brave pioneers fending for themselves and trying to start a better life.
https://www.oregon.gov/DHS/ASSISTANCE/FOOD-BENEFITS/Pages/Oregon-Trail-Card.aspx
Maybe they did a big study, and found that people who get this card die from dissident at a greater rate than the rest of the public and they are just trying to warn the recipients. Why do you want poor people to die of dissident!!
Why do you want poor people to die of dissident!!
I see you found the 2024 Democrat party plank on hate speech.
Minnesota Educational Computing Consortium strikes again!
“Send them a check” could also be “make a cash addition to their UBI debit card.”
Our local Publix cashes payroll checks, no fees. Every Friday there is a long line of brown people waiting to convert their paycheck to cash, which they then proceed to spend within the confines of the store, usually on food but often with large quantities of beer thrown into the cart as well. Publix don’t worry about fees because (a) it’s a payroll check, and (b) it gets spent right away, in Publix.
“The basic goal of the UBI is to eliminate poverty once and for all. ”
Then means-test it. Above poverty line gets $0. Also, do not pay for it by taxes or the kind of borrowing to be repaid by taxes. Make it a government-run entitlement which is funded by voluntary donation.
Username checks out
UBI + flat tax with no deductible is means testing.
^^^This^^^.
It is exactly equivalent to a large standard deduction and a negative income tax, only with the payout monthly instead of annually.
As an aside, did anyone note my quotation on the main page for this article?
It is my primary argument against the UBI.
I think their definitely is a risk to taking away people’s incentive to work. My dad recently retired and was having a tough time adjusting until he decided to restore his 73 beetle. The car isn’t worth much, but it has sentimental value. He is much happier now that he is being productive.
My grandfather retired as a senior vice president with Avis. Within a year, he had gone back to work part time in the Sears hardware department because he was bored out of his mind.
He should have tried harder.
Hah!
Yep, my guess is that we’d see a wide split in society. Most people would spend their days on simple hedonics like video games, fried pickles, and assecks. But I’ve known enough highly competent, driven folks who aren’t motivated by money to know that there will be a huge influx of new books, high-school teachers who actually know what the fuck they are teaching, hand-crafted nick-nacks, and competent managers in altruistic pursuits.
I’m not sure if we would see more or less entrepreneurial endeavors. Lots of people out there husslin because they need to in order to put food on the table. And under a UBI, maybe not. But lots of people are just more risk adverse and don’t want the financial ups and downs.
Or maybe I’m just projecting. I know if a UBI ever became a thing, I’m opening a private school with my brother. I’ve got it all planned out in my head. (or if I can get him to fund it in a few years when he retires with his Scrooge McDuck vault)
I’m planning on doing something similar. During my next paternity leave, I’m gonna see whether the school we’re planning on sending toddler trshmnstr to would do a trial run of letting me teach a high school class or two. Many of the other parents of small kids teach high school classes in exchange for tuition discounts.
Amazing that he wrote that 100 years ago. It’s almost as if people never really change.
As far as destroying your idea, I actually think it makes sense to move that direction given where we are today (hi, Debt Clock!). But it won’t work. Too many people rely on the sweet stolen government lucre.
Within moments of enacting such a plan, bureaucrats would be busy creating carve-outs and loopholes. Just human nature.
I think there is no chance that the transfer payment programs go away and stay away.
It would take a constitutional amendment with a “And this time we mean it” clause. And even then, I doubt it works.
Also, blue states would just restore everything the Feds took away. We’d have a dozen Venezuelas before you know it.
I like the idea of civil servants starving because their checks from the government bounce.
Hey, man. I apologize for snapping at you yesterday morning. I was in a bit of a mood and I unfairly took it out on you. To be honest, sometimes you get my goat but that’s no excuse for reflexively lashing out.
Sorry, I missed that until you pointed it out.
A few generations down the road, SS would be gone and it would be the same as the original plan.
I can’t seem to find it, but I thought I read somewhere that if the Bush phase one had been implemented (2% of SS wages can be diverted to a personal retirement account) and those who took the 2% were denied social security benefits at retirement, they would still be better off in the long run. Clearly we cannot have this.
I would have to do some math, but not sure 2% would be enough, but it would be close. It obviously depends on income level (as SS is very progressive, extra dollars above a certain point don’t provide much extra benefit) and rate of return expected from private investments.
Well the rate of return on the current system is negative so it probably isn’t too far off.
Also, under the Bush plan, if you died young your kids still got the money, and we can’t have that.
Being in my early 40’s, I’m planning on there not being any SS for me when I retire.
I’m not banking on that either. I’m cautiously optimistic for my wife’s pension since they stopped taking new applicants in 2010 and only offer the 403b now.
#metoo
I’m planning on dying before I can retire.
Being 62, I plan to suck it all dry before you (and my kids) can collect.
Go for it!
Hopefully you are already collecting.
I’m in my 50s and made the same assumption.
“Clearly we cannot have this.”
State and local government employees essentially get that deal. You don’t see any of them opting into SS unless they fucked up their cushy job so bad they are forced into the private sector for employment.
and they live happily ever after….
hardy har har.
Fuck that shit. Everybody takes care of themselves and keeps what they earn. You need assistance? You can ask for charity.
Totally agree.
Any system that needs PowerPoint charts and an essay to explain just doesn’t make sense.
Contribute labor, a skill, a talent other people value (art, sports), and you will earn your keep via invisible hand.
IF you’re disabled, plenty of evidence that private charity works and works well.
Or, earn your keep by giving handys.
“A skill others value”
Covered it.
🙂
Handys.
And then with state income tax revenues dropping because people drop out of the work force, won’t we see those rates rise?
Thus, we have eliminated poverty among US citizens. Everyone gets a check that gets them above the poverty line.
Eh, not so fast there. I don’t believe poverty is measured in absolute terms, but relative to the average income. So, you add income, you just move the poverty line. So, since all these people are now below the poverty line, you have to increase the payments. But, then you just shift it again. And you have to raise taxes to pay for it. Repeat until we’re all rich.
You are correct.
We have ALREADY eliminated absolute poverty among US citizens. What remains is essentially an income equality metric.
If everyone in America’s income level doubled tomorrow, poverty would increase.
Under the current system, government entitlements do not count. That way, the poor stay officially poor.
What about DACA kids? Are they eligible? If so, why?
o/t and evergreen: Matt Yglesias is one of the dumbest motherfuckers alive
God damn, he really is the stupidest sonofabitch alive.
Exhibit A that attending Harvard doesn’t mean you’re intelligent.
Lot of good responses, but my fave:
“GribWrites @GribWrites
Replying to @ZachFowle
There is literally nothing Yglesias can’t be wrong about. It’s an impressive track record.”
Sadbeard
It looks like some other people have touched on this, but one problem is how you define poverty. It’s sort of an arbitrary metric. $1040 a month won’t get you very far at all in the DC metropolitan area, for instance, which means you’ll have people on disability or SS (as you mention in the article) who are pretty much either going to be homeless or looking for four other disabled roommates.
You run into some other weird situations, too. For instance, a flat 35% income tax means that people making $3000 or so a month will about break even. But the thing is, running the program costs money, which is sourced through tax revenue presumably. Also, when it gets down to it, there’s an earnings sweet spot where a person could live fairly comfortably by working a semi-professional part-time job thanks to that extra thou a month, which of course is being paid for by his or her more productive neighbors.
You hit on one point of a larger weakness of the UBI. Specifically, not all poors are the same. The meth head in Florida is going to do very different things with $1k a month than the recently divorced single mom than the unemployable gender studies grad.
“The meth head in Florida is going to do very different things with $1k a month than the recently divorced single mom…”
One would hope, but that is not always the case.
“The meth head in Florida is going to do very different things with $1k a month than the recently divorced single mom…”
One would hope, but that is not always the case.
My answer to that is that this theoretical “subsistence” income would be set at a 2/3’s of the minimum line everywhere, no regionalization
If you want to move to low cost locations, you could live well on your “weekly stipend”… You aren’t going to get more in Manhattan.
As for the running out of money during the month I would have the EBT loaded early on Monday morning. If you spend it all after 6:00 monday am? you are not going to starve if you have no food for a week, or shelter and we can have no sympathy.
Remember people are saying the UBI is for when the robots have all taken our Jerbs. I see no reason that there will ever be a lack of scarcity in any human endeavor. These people can go back into personal service. Why take 35% of my income for UBI, when I can employ a housekeeper, chef, gardener, butler etc? There is no end of work available.
The Monday morning load does sound like a good idea, although maybe it should be Tuesday due to so many Mondays being Holidays. When July 4, Dec 25 or Jan 1 falls on a Tuesday, the money could load on Monday instead.
Why take 35% of my income for UBI, when I can employ a housekeeper, chef, gardener, butler etc?
While that sounds good in theory, try getting those people to show up for work, work a full shift, do good work, not steal, etc. “Good help is so hard to find,” was true for a reason.
I believe the “The Gods of the Copybook Headings” had an answer.
Humans need to compete, they need to work, it is part of our makeup. Status changes over time, but everyone wants to be higher on the pyramid than others. We are dealing with the fact that we are so rich that our poor are overfed. We haven’t developed the systems to cope with that yet.
Now, do you set UBI at subsistence levels, two hots and a cot? Is it supposed to be high enough to replace disability? Retirement? Do we treat that differently? All of the options are bad, is there a least bad one?
That’s when DC and the like jack up the taxes on the productive class even higher in order to keep the layabouts happy. Rinse and repeat until all the productive people have moved out.
Your tax plan doesn’t make sense to me. 35% flat tax with no deductions means a family of four pays $35k on $100k of income.
Way too high. Ten percent total tax burden per individual. Total tax burden – federal, state, local, property, income, personal property, etc.
Your family of four pays $35,000 in taxes.
Your family of four receives $(1040+1040+370+370)*12=$33,840 in UBI.
Net out of pocket would be $1,160.
Compare that to your current federal income taxes, and it probably comes out ahead. Like all flat taxes with a tax-free portion, it is highly, highly progressive. If you made $200k, you would be paying $36,160 in taxes.
This. It is equivalent to a very high standard deduction:
Adults: $35,657 each
Child: $12,686 each
Ah, forgot to net it out.
We have been told all our lives that “Social Security is just like a lockbox. All the money you’ve contributed over the years is safe in your account.” Now, we all know this to be the worst sort of bullshit, but let’s play along. Starting tomorrow no more SS deductions from anyone’s paycheck. Everyone not yet receiving SS payments gets a one-time disbursement of all the money in that account.
People currently getting Social Security payments should be rigorously means-tested: those whose accounts are already overdrawn will continue to receive payments to supplement UBI and keep their income steady; those who are flush get a one-time check for remaining account balance minus received payments. But I don’t know how to define “flush.
Many landlords would set their rents so as to purposefully exclude people whose only income was UBI. I don’t have a problem with that, but some people sure as hell will.
When I was a renter, I was willing to pay a little extra to be located well away from the housing projects.
Giving everyone $1,040 would have the same effect as giving everyone $1.040,000. Prices of everything would go up to offset there being more money available. I still wouldn’t be able to afford a Lotus.
Not just rental properties, but entry-level anything will have the price rise in response to wider demand.
It is an illusion. Fake magic wands run out of sparks very quickly.
“Poverty is the natural state. People don’t long for liberty. They long to be taken care of.”
“People long for Top Men. When things go to shit they have someone to blame instead of themselves.”
Two quotes I heard in the last week. In a nutshell the two things hated the most are truth and responsibility.
“The Poor will always be with us”
– Jesus Christ
Surely you’re not saying we have the resources
To save the poor from their lot?
There will be poor always, pathetically struggling.
Look at the good things you’ve got.
Wealth cannot exist without poverty. Wealth is defined by poverty and vice versa.
This, obviously, is why this plan will fail. There is no reasonable mechanism by which all transfer payments can be ended and no future ones initiated. As such, I think the UBI is nice to dream about in theory (or in a dictatorial environment like a video game economy) but not possible in practice.
I mean are we also ending the subsidizing of student loans? Lol me.
There is 1 reasonable mechanism: Constitutional Amendment.
This is also why I oppose the Fair Tax. While it isn’t optimal, it is an improvement over the income tax, but not without an amendment banning the income tax, or we would end up with both.
Even with a constitutional amendment, I don’t see it. The SC signed off on the executive murdering US citizens with flying murder robots and tapping every single phone call made by every single resident of the country. And those are first-class rights. Economic rights don’t stand a chance.
Fuck the Yang Gang.
#WorstBattleRapsOf2019
I never understood why some people were all about Yang. Why? Because he’ll do Ben Shapiro’s show? Pure stupid. At least for non-neocon libertarians Tulsi offers some criticisms that they’d agree with. Yang offers nothing.
No idea who Yang is.
He’s the enemy of the Coms.
He’s the Elon Musk of the Dem presidential candidate pool. He is running on a UBI platform.
Who for some reason has a following on 4chan.
Oh… another one….
Is there anyone _not_ running for Dem presidential candidate? It will save some time.
Hillary (so far).
touche
$1040 a month! Luxury, I could do that right now, hell I figured it out a few years back and I can cover my rent and utilities, food, etc for $700, and that’s not even ramen and mac&cheese eating level, sure lots more chicken than pork and no-more steaks unless its one of those questionable looking ones in the bargin bin, and I’d have to forgo the deli counter pastrami for the cheap ham over by the bologna for my sammiches, but I would still eat decently. If I found a rommie and went full grocery skimping I bet I could halve that.
Damn, I envy you.
Yeah, but you have to drink cheap beer.
And live in Ohio. #neveragain
Where do you live?
North central Ohio.
The finest dishwasher packing box behind the 7-11?
OT & not the Bee.
SP needs to have a “Most Punchable Face?” evening Poll.
This guy gets my vote.
Beto Apologizes To Campaign Staff: ‘I Was A Giant Asshole To Be Around Sometimes’ | The Daily Caller. https://tiny.iavian.net/t4k9
Swalwell still gets my vote.
And at least Swalwell had the balls to threaten a nuclear holocaust on his political opponents. Beto is just a milquetoast, ineffectual beta cuck.
He is a pet husband. I imagine what goes on in the bedroom between him and his master would disgust SF.
Who’s probably getting more college co-Ed tail this month than an SEC quarterback.
Only some of the time?
Just dropping in to say that that “The Gods of the Copybook Headings” is the greatest poem ever written. That is all.
“When caught between two evils, I generally like to take the one I never tried.”
— Mae West, Klondike Annie
I am glad someone saw it.
It’s the most Glibertastic single piece of literature ever composed.
I have a friend who’s a HS History, and have tried (unsuccessfully) to goad him into using it as the core of his whole syllabus.
*does some quick math* This works out as a big “meh” for me. Given the increase in taxes paid, and the (relatively) low UBI payment, it’s so close to a wash as to be irrelevant. I guess the “simpler” taxes would help (mine aren’t that complex anyway).
Tax compliance is estimated to be a drain of about $100 billion a year. In a nation of 300 million, that’s not irrelevant. Roughly $1,000 a year for a family of four just on compliance costs. Compliance costs provide exactly zero value, you just have to do them or men with guns kick down your door and drag you to a cage.
That’s a huge drag on the economy*.
*to be fair, its actually pretty good for the door and the gun industry.
Which raises the issue of the biggest lobbyists against tax reform – H&R Block and Intuit.
kinnath’s plan: work or die.
That, or marry well.
As Pater Dean told me long ago, “people who marry for money always wind up having to earn it”.
Work is work.
“Gas, grass, or ass. No-one rides free.”
I think that’s like in the Bible or something.
That was the sticker on the donkey on which Jesus rode into Jerusalem.
ALSO STEVE SMITH PLAN. WORK ALL DAY FINDING HIKERS TO SHARE CAVE WITH.
Question:
Each adult (18+) would receive $1040 per month. Each child would receive $370. This is based on the 2019 federal poverty guidelines with the adjustment
a flat tax on all income at 35%
Wouldn’t this mean that each adult was actually getting $676 per month, since 35% of their UBI check goes back to the feds?
If the poverty guidelines are for after-tax money, and I have no idea if they are or not, won’t we need to gross up the UBI checks to allow for taxes? My rule of thumb for grossing up is that you basically have to double the payment; this may be outdated due to tax code changes lowering the top rate.
Since much of what we now spend on the poor isn’t counted in the poverty metrics, I suspect that many people now on welfare will be significantly worse off under the UBI. Not a bad thing, necessarily, but I think that’s what you will see.
Finally, that 35% flat rate, no deductions, will destroy many charities. In some ways, the current tax code gives you the option of funding the public good through tax payments to the government, or through donations to charity. With no deduction, the government becomes even more of a monopolist on providing for the public good.
UBI is not taxed in most plans.
Most poverty guidelines are pre-tax income.
Otherwise, people would start pointing out that you could reduce the poverty by lower taxesThis allows for better tracking over time.People may have less money spent on their benefits (IE may only get $1040 spent on their benefits) but they will value their benefits more because they will be able to direct them to whatever they need instead of what some shitty, unplanned web of benefits provide (IE they can buy food or business capitol with their UBI, could only buy food with WIC.) The people most hardest hit are people who currently receive lots and lots and lots of high-price services that they actually value. For example, I know an adult with a cognitive issue. He lives on his own… with government paid nurses in his house 16 hours a day. $1040 a day isn’t going to cover that.
Most poverty guidelines are pre-tax income.
Since that first $12,000/year is essentially untaxed now, I think my observation about grossing up still holds.
Income tax free. Poor folks still pay tax directly on sales, automobile registration, employment tax etc and indirectly on property tax (assuming they rent.) I’ve seen a few examples of people making less than the poverty line level of income forking over about half their income to various levels of the gubmint.
Fucking stadiums don’t build themselves, Leap.
Since this doesn’t affect anything but federal income and payroll taxes, I don’t think that other taxes affect the analysis?
Back of the envelope for me: My taxes would nearly triple, and my after-tax income would be reduced by 1/4 – 1/3.
Does that include the tax-free UBI in your income? Its entirely possible that would happen. Like I said, this would be a highly, highly progressive change to the tax structure.
Yes it would. Especially for singles or even couples without kids in the home.
Does that include the tax-free UBI in your income?
Sorry if I missed it, but is the UBI tax free? As in, a deduction on your income in the amount of UBI received?
don’t forget to reduce your FICA tax
Good point. That means the increase in my taxes is north of 250%,
is the UBI tax free?
I see now that it is. Reduces the increase in my taxes to closer to 250%, and the reduction in my after-tax income to closer to 1/4.
The way that it is usually formulated, is that the income tax is a tax on *earned* income aka money you are currently showing on your W2 etc. The UBI is not subject to that tax.
So currently, your income is:
$X earned income, taxed at the current scheme.
$0 UBI.
Under the proposal, your income is:
$X earned income, taxed at 35%
$(1040*adults+1040*kids)*12 taxed at 0% rate
For a grand total of: .65X+(1040*adults+1040*kids)*12; for most Americans, this would be a greater amount of money every year. But not for high income Americans, especially SINKs and DINKs.
for most Americans, this would be a greater amount of money every year
For some, sure. But getting rid of all current deductions is going to skew down the number showing a net benefit.
Less now than before the Trump tax change.
I still itemize for state taxes, but not federal.
Pure plan or alternate plan?
Under pure plan, don’t forget to reduce your FICA tax (and the employer part too).
Making some very shaky assumptions, I don’t think it is possible for net taxes to increase by more than 1.6.
Looking at my actual tax data (which, to be fair, includes a tax shelter that would go away), in my case it does.
Don’t forget, no more deductions (standard or itemized) of any kind, except the deduction for UBI. Getting rid of deductions is going to hit everybody.
Here was my assumptions, which are horribly shaky:
Current tax: (Income-24000)*.22
This assumes 2 adults, no kids, no deductions over the new larger standard deduction (this is true for me), ignoring things like 401k, and etc, ignoring lower tax brackets, but also ignoring higher tax brackets for the wealthy. This is obviously hugely variable and not reasonably right. But it also ignores FICA tax, which is 12.4% up to a certain limit, so I am sticking with it.
New tax: (income * .35) – 24960
24960 = 1040*2*12
The break even point is around 150k. The real break even point with mortgage deductions and etc is probably lower. The asymptote is new tax/current tax = 1.59, so 250% isn’t possible under my simplified scenario for current tax.
Median household income is around $60K. Average household size is a little over 2.5. We’ll call it three – two adults and one minor.
Current tax system, we’ll say the head of household (not married)) deduction of $18K takes taxable income down to $42K. Taxes on that are around $5K, for after-tax income of $55K.
Pre-tax income with the UBI would be $90K. Under UBI, getting rid of employee-side FICA of 6.2% increases take-home earnings to $64K. 35% tax on $60K would be $22K. After-tax income + UBI is $68K.
Yeah, the tax code is going to have to be brutally progressive in effect in order to balance the budget and pay for UBI.
250% isn’t possible under my simplified scenario for current tax.
Its what it would do to me, by cutting off the charitable donations I use to fund my retirement tax shelter. Admittedly, I am an edge case.
I wasn’t taxing the UBI, just “earned” income.
Also, charities existed before the income tax. How did they survive without the tax deduction?
Also, charities existed before the income tax. How did they survive without the tax deduction?
At a much reduced level compared to today.
In other words, at the free market equilibrium level.
And is that true? I would have bet that tithing rates were much higher in the 19th century than the 21st.
Despite what the tax code says, I don’t count churches as charities. Some have real charitable activity, many don’t.
It would be interesting to see a decent study of voluntary charitable spending over time.
If I can’t use my deep-felt personal conviction in the ultimate power in the universe to fund club goods with pre-tax dollars, why do we even HAVE a government?
Good luck finding such a study. My understanding is that lots of charitable activity for the first 75% of the US history involved in-kind help (aka direct gifts of food or providing free access to farm equipment when your neighbor’s horse died) or free/reduced cost access to club goods (aka the church or Polish League of Smallville having a parish or league doctor on staff, and not charging the Jefferson’s that year that their horse died.) Those are just about impossible to document and aggregate.
It’s not an empirical study, but Olasky’s “Tragedy of American Compassion” addresses this in historical terms.
finally saw the Memorial Day video at the Fresno Grizzlies game starring “enemy of freedom” AOC. some A/V troll brought their A-game. it also had lots of Antefa images after Castro’s picture to be included in the “enemies of freedom” camp. funny there’s no one speaking up for them.
Hopefully, a UBI (however imaginary) would not penalize those who supplement it by actually working (unlike current welfare schemes).
There’s nothing like an effective income tax in excess of 100% to incentivize people.
A UBI designed by anyone who doesn’t like “Expert Window Licker” on their resume have a lower disincentive to work than the current regime. Unfortunately, we are run by a very complex system that takes as input hair plugs and campaign lies and produces a complex simulation of a window licker drafting up tax law.
BTW, I want it made clear that despite me closing the tag at the end of my article, the SLD still applies, I still oppose it. Just not for some of the reasons some of you do.
Is it because it is a tax on things people are doing, instead of a tax on things they put barns on?
Sure, in part.
But my primary reason is anything specifically mentioned in “The Gods of the Copybook Headings” is a bad idea.
Also, what Kinnath said.
Also, what you said in #21.
Although Thomas Paine was in favor of a 1 time payment at age 18 or 20 or something to everyone, funded from a land tax.
“Here ya go, don’t blow it, this is all the government is ever going to give you.”
““Here ya go, don’t blow it, this is all the government is ever going to give you.”
To which, the government would look to the Prodigal Son for the next step.
That would be an interesting angle. UBI not as an annuity, but as a lump sum.
Assuming a lifespan of 78 years, every American, at birth, gets a bank account opened in their name with $828,720 ((370*12*18)+(1040*12*60)) in a trust they can only access at age 18. Special circumstances allow you to apply for earlier access.
Of course, that basically means that just by being born in America, we make you an instant millionaire. Congratulations! We’ve eliminated poverty AND made everyone rich!
I was thinking far smaller, something like $60k* at age 18.
*medianish household income
If they just dumped it in a index fund at retirement they would have about 1.1 million in constant dollars. So they could spend it on college or hookers or have retirement pre-funded. Their choice.
That would immediately create an entire industry of con artists looking to soak up that money, most noticeably from higher education.
I’ll just throw this out there for no particular reason:
Even if those danged old Trump Tariffs are effectively a new tax, at least it’s a tax on consumption.
I know I still have yet to finish up and submit part 3 of my Burning Man series (things have been busy, it’ll happen at some point here!) but I’ve been considering a weekly submission on cryptocurrencies and articles like this one make me more inclined to follow up if there’s any interest here.
There’s quite a few of these now, I watch several very closely, have access to some knowledge of ongoing developments as a result of business entanglements, and have been monitoring/following patterns in the price fluctuations. Since I’m actively tracking a lot of this data it wouldn’t be too hard for me to compile a lot it in one place and share it here.
Is this something Glibs would be interested in reading?
yes
+1
I’m trying to think of something that Glibs wouldn’t enjoy reading. Even someone like MattY would get heckled but would still get comments and page views.
Random thought while putting down new mulch yesterday…
Do trans men become part of the patriarchy?
Of course not, because trans men are victims and victims can’t be evil and the patriarchy is evil.
It’s like you don’t even woke.
What if the trans man is also gay? Aren’t gays now part of the patriarchy.? A gay trans man is a double patriarch? And an Asian gay trans man is a triple patriarch?
We need a decoder ring.
“Be Sure To Drink Your Ovaltine.”
WTF?!
Decoder ring says…..
*shakes ring, taps on table*
Ah, here we go.
The human mind tends to desire a simple top-down organization because we grow up part of a family unit. For the vast majority of human history that has meant a father as the patriarch, mother as management and siblings in other various positions of hierarchy.
*scratches head*
I thought we had to destroy the patriarchy? Weren’t we trying to get away from that?
So I’m supposed to simultaneously treat them like a male and a female?
Fess up, whose girlfriend is this?
I’m imagining it is Trace’s Jugsy.
I thought that too, but then I recalled those pics he posted where she has a six-pack of abs and decided that this girl probably doesn’t have that. Just guessing.
Maybe a six-pack hidden in her abdominal region. I could see that.
er Tres’
Which side of the hot/crazy matrix is she on? I need to know the score before I take a stab at that.
Hey, Anaheim and Pacific! I used to live near there.
‘You get more of what you reward, less of what you punish’
Since when has creating another government program to help the poor helped the poor and not government bureaucracy ?
UBI would be an unmitigated disaster.
But a better or worse disaster than what we have ever expanding?
Yes.
The Soviet Union collapsed primarily because, in spite of all the free stuff promised to everyone, they didn’t have it to give out. They stopped paying. They didn’t just run out of money, they ran out of credibility. Soldiers walked off of their posts, govt workers of all stripes spent their days wandering the countryside trying to find mushrooms, rodents or roots to feed their families. Hell, workers at nuclear facilities and the guards at missile silos just walked off and left the places with the doors unlocked. All of the govt facilities, factories, offices etc were simply abandoned.
This road only goes one place. It is the same place it went yesterday, today and tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how fast you drive or what you see along the way the destination is the same every…. fucking…. time.
Someone’s been watching the Matrix Part II.