Category: Economy

  • Economics Corner with Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    Damnit Sugarfree!  You think your the only schmuck around here with no time to toss something together??

    Here’s one where Krugabe questions who is out of touch with reality.

    Will the Democratic presidential nomination go to a centrist or a progressive? Which choice would give the party the best chance in next year’s election? Honestly, I have no idea.

    This is good tack to take, given your inability to predict anything, including things you are purported to be an expert.

    One thing I can say, however, is that neither centrism nor progressivism is what it used to be.

    There was a time when arguments between centrists and progressives were framed as debates between realism and idealism. These days, however, it often seems as if the centrists, not the progressives, are out of touch with reality. Indeed, sometimes it feels as if centrists are Rip Van Winkles who spent the last 20 years in a cave and missed everything that has happened to America and the world since the 1990s.

    You can see this in politics, where Joe Biden has repeatedly declared that Republicans will have an “epiphany” once Donald Trump is gone, and once again become reasonable people Democrats can deal with. Given the GOP’s scorched-earth politics during the Obama years, that’s a bizarre claim.

    Turnabout is fair play asshole, team cuck simply decided to start playing by the same rules team cunt played by–since forever, really.  Which is par for the course for team cuck, it takes them 20 years or more to come around to anything.

    You can also see it in economics. There are many reasonable criticisms you could offer of Elizabeth Warren’s economic proposals. But the one I keep seeing is that Warren would turn America into (cue scary music) Europe, maybe even (cue even scarier music) France. And you have to wonder whether people who say such things have paid any attention to either Europe or America over the past few decades.

    We know where France is located dumbass.

    Just to be clear, Europe does have big economic problems. But they’re not the ones such people seem to imagine.

    When people say such things, they seem to have in mind a picture of the U.S.-Europe comparison that did seem to have some validity in the 1990s. In that picture, nations with large social spending and extensive government regulation of markets suffered from “Eurosclerosis,” persistent lack of jobs.

    Employers, the story went, were reluctant to expand both because of high taxes and because they feared not being able to fire workers once hired. At the same time, workers had little incentive to accept jobs because they could live off generous social programs.

    Europe also seemed to be lagging in the adoption of new technology: For a while, the U.S. surged ahead in making use of the internet and information technology in general, leading to arguments that Europe’s high taxes and regulation were discouraging innovation.

    But all of that was a long time ago. The jobs gap has largely vanished; adults in their prime working years are actually more likely to be employed in Europe, France included, than they are in America.

    Any gap in the adoption of information technology has also long since vanished; households in much of Europe are as or more likely to have broadband than their U.S. counterparts, partly because the U.S. failure to limit providers’ monopoly power has led to much higher prices for internet access.

    Unemployment for the EU this year (that is 2019, not sometime in the 1990’s) is 6.3%, with France being 8.6%.  Lets compare that to the United States at 3.6%.  While you cherry-pick the price of broadband in Europe ($90 EU vs. $200 US) these savings seem to be moot compared to the price Europeans pay to heat their homes, drive cars, or even anything else…here’s a rundown of the cost of basic things between the US and Germany, for example.

    Then again the price of anything is determined by it’s demand, and is influenced by a variety of factors.  It seems silly to pick one product and simply declare one country is doing something better than the other.  The fact of the matter it is often much more complicated than that, but since your average reader probably cunt count to 12 without the physical deformity of a sixth digit on each hand, you can get away with cherry-picking.

    It’s true that European nations have lower GDP per capita than we do, but that’s largely because, unlike most Americans, most Europeans actually have significant vacation time and hence work fewer hours per year. This sounds like a choice about work-life balance, not an economic problem.

    And on that most fundamental of indicators, life expectancy, the U.S. has fallen far behind: French residents can expect, on average, to live more than four years longer than Americans. Why? Universal health care and policies that mitigate extreme inequality are the most likely explanations.

    Now, I don’t want this to sound like praise of all things European. The nations on the euro remain terribly vulnerable to financial crises, because they’ve adopted a shared currency without a shared banking safety net; only the heroic leadership of Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, avoided a catastrophic collapse of the euro in 2012.

    Europe also suffers from persistent weakness in demand because key players, Germany in particular, have an obsessive fear of deficits, even when the European economy desperately needs stimulus.

    They’re right to fear it.  The cost of them ruling over the continent now appears to be paying for Spain and Italy to take naps in the afternoon, the Turks to commit atrocities against the Kurds, the French to go on vacation, and for the Greeks to do…whatever it is they do, rather than be productive.

    These are big problems, severe enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if Europe is the epicenter of the next global crisis. But the problem with Europe is not that its social programs are too generous and its governments too intrusive. If anything, it’s almost the opposite: Europe’s economy is vulnerable because a combination of political fragmentation and ideological rigidity has left its politicians unwilling to be Keynesian enough.

    When all else fails–PROG HARDER.

    The point is that centrists who point to Europe as an illustration of the bad things that happen when you’re too enthusiastic about pursuing social justice are stuck decades in the past. Modern European experience actually vindicates progressive claims that we can do a lot to make America fairer without destroying incentives. And even Europe’s problems make the case for more government intervention, not less.

    By all means, let’s talk about whether “Medicare for all,” wealth taxes and other progressive proposals are actually good ideas. But trying to shoot them down by going on about how terrible things are in France is a sure sign that you have no idea what you’re talking about.

    That’s fair.  Medicare for all, is a fucking retarded idea that will bankrupt the country, let alone multiple hospitals and health care providers that will suddenly find their profit margins have gone to hell.  Wealth taxes will result in people fleeing the country, or holding their wealth offshore–like what happened when they tried it in France.  Except nobody is shooting is down because of how much a shithole France is, they’re shooting it down because we have practical experience from experiments with these progressive proposals  BECAUSE THEY WAS TRIED IN FRANCE YOU DUMBASS.

     

  • Economics Corner with Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    I’m back, you cucks!  Bigger, louder, and saltier than ever!  That could just be the cognac talking.

    Here’s something from earlier this week.

    It’s hard to believe that barely three weeks have passed since Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, issued a mysterious subpoena to the acting director of national intelligence, demanding that he produce a whistleblower complaint filed by someone in the intelligence community.

    Since that subpoena was issued, the impeachment of Donald Trump has gone from implausibility to near certainty; I at least find it hard to see how the House can fail to impeach given what we already know about Trump’s actions. Conviction in the Senate remains a long shot, but not as long as it once seemed.

    And the whole tenor of our national conversation has changed. It looks to me as if we’re witnessing the rapid collapse of a powerful faction in U.S. public life, one whose refusal to accept facts at odds with its prejudices has long been a major source of political dysfunction.

    Wait?  Did somebody finally administer you a red pill suppository?  Did Krugnuts get whacked and his severed head mounted to one of those Boston Dynamic robots to be reanimated as a spokesman by our new AI overlords while we toil under their desks forever?

    But I’m not talking about the right-wing extremists who dominate the Republican Party. Sorry, but they’re not going anywhere. Most of Trump’s base is sticking with him, while the list of prominent Republican politicians willing to call out Trump’s malfeasance in clear language consists so far of Mitt Romney and, well, Mitt Romney.

    No, I’m talking about fanatical centrists, who aren’t a large slice of the electorate, but have played an outsize role in elite opinion and media coverage. These are people who may have been willing to concede that Trump was a bad guy, but otherwise maintained, in the teeth of the evidence, that our two major parties were basically equivalent: Each party had its extremists, but each also had its moderates, and everything would be fine if these moderates could work together.

    Wait, what?  Eat shit.  That’s damn near everybody on a comment thread in any vaguely right-wing website.  Let me spell it out for you, they hate Team Cuck every bit as they hate Team Cunt. You might know that if you ever got out of your furry pink panties, put in a decent pair on man pants and left Princeton, NJ…ever.

    Who am I talking about? Well, among other people, Joe Biden, who has repeatedly insisted that Trump is an aberration, not representative of the Republican Party as a whole. (Biden’s refusal to admit what he was facing may be one reason his response to the Ukraine smear has seemed so wobbly.)

    Some of us have been pushing back against that worldview for many years, arguing that today’s Republican Party is a radical force increasingly opposed to democracy. Way back in 2003 I wrote that modern conservatism is “a movement whose leaders do not accept the legitimacy of our current political system.” In 2012, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein declared that the central problem of U.S. politics was a GOP that was not just extreme but “dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.”

    They are opposed to democracy, as implied in the fucking name…Republican and the fact they are relevant at all in todays politics is a result of the fact we live in a republic.  But I will pretend you know that and are playing to the retards that feel smart reading your column.

    For those retards let me spell out why democracy isn’t a good thing:  the best example of democracy in action is gang-rape.

    For a long time, however, making that case — pointing out that Republicans were sounding ever more authoritarian and violating more and more democratic norms — got you dismissed as shrill if not deranged. Even Trump’s rise, and the obvious parallels between Trumpism and the authoritarian movements that have gutted democracy in places like Hungary and Poland, barely dented centrist complacency. Remember, just a few months ago most of the news media treated Attorney General William Barr’s highly misleading summary of the Mueller report as credible.

    Hey dumbass.  Poland is a parliamentary republic, as is Hungary

    Plus nothing was misleading about the summary, as it is a well-known fact, there was nothing misleading about the summary.

    The Department says that Mueller emphasized that nothing in Barr’s summary was inaccurate or misleading, but that Mueller was frustrated about the lack of context and that the media’s coverage related to the analysis of obstruction of justice was a bit confusing.

    That is per those radical right-wing nut jobs at NPR—Barr didn’t correctly capture Muller’s fragile ego written in glittery lip gloss.

    But my sense, although it’s impossible to quantify, is that the events of the past several weeks have finally broken through the wall of centrist denial.

    At this point, things that previously were merely obvious have become undeniable. Yes, Trump has invited foreign powers to intervene in U.S. politics on his behalf; he’s even done it on camera. Yes, he has claimed that his domestic political opponents are committing treason by exercising their constitutional rights of oversight, and he is clearly itching to use the justice system to criminalize criticism.

    Politicians who believed in American values would denounce this behavior, even if it came from their own leader. Republicans have been silent at best, and many are expressing approval. So it’s now crystal clear that the GOP is not a normal political party; it is an American equivalent of Hungary’s Fidesz or Poland’s Law and Justice, an authoritarian regime in waiting.

    Yes.  Reckless authoritarians that are actively campaigning on nationalizing 1/6 of the economy in the form of Medicare for all, seizing personal wealth from billionaires (wealth is not income), and my personal favorite—sending pigs door to door to seize gunz from people that own gunz from people that own gunz.  Which is retarded given YOU KNOW THEY OWN GUNZ!

    Right, its Team Cuck that is saying that….

    And I think — I hope — that those who have spent years denying this reality are finally coming around.

    It’s important to understand that the GOP hasn’t suddenly changed, that Trump hasn’t somehow managed to corrupt a party that was basically OK until he came along. Anyone startled by Republican embrace of wild conspiracy theories about the deep state must have slept through the Clinton years, and wasn’t paying attention when most of the GOP decided that climate change was a hoax perpetrated by a vast global scientific cabal.

    Either thst or they are waiting fir jackoffs like you start acting like this is a fucking crisis.  You know, like moving inland with the ingrates that will instantly recognize you and use your soft, pink carcass as carbon-neutral fuel.

    And anyone shocked by Republican acceptance of the idea that it’s fine to seek domestic political aid from foreign regimes has forgotten (like all too many people) that the Bush administration took us to war on false pretenses — not the same sin, but an equally serious betrayal of American political norms.

    No, Trump isn’t an aberration. He’s unusually blatant and gaudily corrupt, but at a basic level he’s the culmination of where his party has been going for decades. And U.S. political life won’t begin to recover until centrists face up to that uncomfortable reality.

    Wait?  Are you supposed to be a goddamn economist?  NOTHING WRITTEN HERE IS ABOUT THE ECONOMY.  Fuck this guy.

     

  • Economic Corner featuring Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    This week Krugman declared DEMOCRACY IS DEAD!!!, which explains why it suddenly got dark out.

    Did it die in darkness?  Well, that will depend if you paid enough to keep the lights on.

    Democracies used to collapse suddenly, with tanks rolling noisily toward the presidential palace. In the 21st century, however, the process is usually subtler.

    Authoritarianism is on the march across much of the world, but its advance tends to be relatively quiet and gradual, so that it’s hard to point to a single moment and say, this is the day democracy ended. You just wake up one morning and realize that it’s gone.

     

    In their 2018 book “How Democracies Die,” political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt documented how this process has played out in many countries, from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey, to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Bit by bit the guardrails of democracy were torn down, as institutions meant to serve the public became tools of the ruling party, then were weaponized to punish and intimidate that party’s opponents. On paper these countries are still democracies; in practice they have become one-party regimes.

    And the events of the past week have demonstrated how this can happen right here in America.

    Does this book by chance mention anything about the bloody English?  You know that island with terrible looking women that voted on something in the past couple years the government has gone to great lengths to ignore?  I’m going to go out on a limb before I look this up– you probably said it was going to be terrible for them to vote leave….

     

    ….I was right!

    At first Sharpiegate, Donald Trump’s inability to admit that he misstated a weather projection by claiming that Alabama was at risk from Hurricane Dorian, was kind of funny, even though it was also scary — it’s not reassuring when the president of the United States can’t face reality. But it stopped being any kind of joke on Friday, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a statement falsely backing up Trump’s claim that it had warned about an Alabama threat.

    Why is this frightening? Because it shows that even the leadership of NOAA, which should be the most technical and apolitical of agencies, is now so subservient to Trump that it’s willing not just to overrule its own experts but to lie, simply to avoid a bit of presidential embarrassment.

     

    Think about it: If even weather forecasters are expected to be apologists for Dear Leader, the corruption of our institutions is truly complete.

    Holy.  Fucking.  Shit.  Who. The. Fuck. Cares.  Have hurricanes ever hit Alabama?  Yeah.  Have hurricanes changed course with no advance warning?  Yeah.  Is Alabama located somewhere near where they were expecting the hurricane to hit?  Yeah, sure.

    None if that matters because it blasted all over the Bahamas, changed course, and will now plow through Nova Scotia.

    If it did hit Alabama, and no warning was given at all, you;re enough of a scroungy little fuck to blame the Oranje man for not seeing it coming.  It must be nice to be a dishonest asshat like Krugman that has no bearing on anything resembling reality, because he can find any way to pretend he’s smarter than everyone else.  I even picked up a Trump sharpie from his campaign website, look what I can do with it!

     

    Which brings me to a much more important case, the Justice Department’s decision to investigate automakers for the crime of trying to act responsibly.

    The story so far: As part of its jihad against environmental regulation, the Trump administration has declared its intention to roll back Obama-era rules mandating a gradual rise in fuel efficiency.

    You might think that the auto industry would welcome this invitation to keep on polluting. In fact, however, automakers have already based their business plans on the assumption that fuel efficiency standards will indeed rise.

    Well shit.  Maybe it has something to do with the increasing fuel efficiency regulations that have been in place since the 70’s?  This whole saving gas thing just popped up out of nowhere like the last time you had an akward boner while watching Bob Ross?

    They don’t like seeing their plans upended — in part, one suspects, because they understand that the reality of climate change will eventually force the reinstatement of those rules. So they have actually opposed Trump’s deregulation, which they warn would lead to “an extended period of litigation and instability.”

    And several companies have gone beyond protesting. In a remarkable rebuke to the administration, they have reached an agreement with the state of California to comply with standards nearly as restrictive as the Obama rules even if the federal government is no longer requiring them.

    Now, according to The Wall Street Journal, the Justice Department is considering bringing an antitrust action against those companies, as if agreeing on environmental standards were a crime comparable to, say, price-fixing.

    They are agreeing to something as an industry that affects the overall cost of ownership of a product exclusive to that industry, that sells products to literally everybody in the country.  I will wait for you to explain why this is not somehow subject to antitrust laws….

    This would be disturbing even if it came from an administration that had previously showed some interest in actual antitrust policy. Coming from people who heretofore haven’t indicated any concerns about monopoly power, it’s clearly an attempt at weaponizing antitrust actions, turning them into a tool of intimidation.

    And it’s also clear evidence that the Justice Department has been thoroughly corrupted. In less than three years it has been transformed from an agency that tries to enforce the law to an organization dedicated to punishing Trump’s opponents.

    You clearly paid no attention to that whole FISA thing in the news, because only team-red friendly outlets are reporting it.

    Who’s next? In at least two cases, Trump appears to have tried to use his power to punish Amazon, whose founder, Jeff Bezos, owns The Washington Post, which the president considers (like this newspaper) to be an enemy. First he pushed for an increase in the post office’s package shipping rates, which would hurt Amazon’s delivery costs; then the Pentagon suddenly announced that it was re-examining the process for awarding a huge cloud-computing project that Amazon was widely expected to win.

    In each case it’s hard to prove that these were efforts to weaponize government functions against domestic critics. But who are we kidding? Of course they were.

    The point is that this is how the slide to autocracy happens. Modern de facto dictatorships don’t usually murder their opponents (although Trump has been fulsome in his praise for regimes that do, in fact, rely on brute force). What they do, instead, is use their control over the machinery of government to make life difficult for anyone considered disloyal, until effective opposition withers away.

    And it’s happening here as we speak. If you aren’t worried about the future of American democracy, you aren’t paying attention.

    I am worried…I am worried Shit-weasels like you will eventually be in charge. The difference between you and me, is I don’t like the government meddl8g in the market regardless of the asshole in charge.  Tell me, did you give a flying fuck about Obama’s antitrust actions in telecom, private health insurance, oil/gas…even a merger between Staples and Office Depot. Seriously, did team Obama think thy were going to corner the printer paper market and jack up prices of reams of printer paper?  Who the fuck else will sell me pens!?!? How much of a shit-weasel do you have to be to argue against one president’s obscene meddling in the market and are perfectly okay with it when your prefered asshole wants to screw with the market?

    Don’t forget to cup the balls, schmuck.

     

  • Tuesday Afternoon Links

    Well I survived secondary AND tertiary screening at one of the few non-TSA airports in America. I had ground coffee in my bag (I’ve gone through this airport 2x/year for several years with a few pounds of coffee in my carry-on with no problem). Apparently ground coffee looks like an explosive on x-rays and swipes like an explosive with those stupid little testing swabs. A supervisor was called. The supervisor called a manager. Good times. The Canandaigua blend from this place was absolutely worth the hassle though. But enough about me. On to LINKS!

    And the traditional musical link

  • Economics Corner with Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    Oh, hello darling…did you miss me?

     

    So here is Krugabe’s latest.  Now that Mugabe is dead, can we even call him that anymore?

    With each passing week it becomes ever clearer that Donald Trump’s trade war, far from being “good, and easy to win,” is damaging large parts of the U.S. economy. Farmers are facing financial disaster; manufacturing, which Trump’s policies were supposed to revive, is contracting; consumer confidence is plunging, largely because the public (rightly) fears that tariffs will raise prices.

    But Trump has an answer to his critics: It’s not me, it’s you. Last week he declared that businesses claiming to have been hurt by his tariffs should blame themselves, because they’re “badly run and weak.”

    They have been bad for business, but I am pretty sure Trump said he was going to raise tariffs on China for a long time.  He only became President in 2016, kept saying he liked the idea of tariffs, and would figure out a way to levy them on China.  Then the initial batch of tariffs went into effect in 2018…so given how much he’s run his mouth about it before doing it, he kind of has a leg to stand on.

    As with many Trump statements, one immediate thought that comes to mind is, how would Republicans have reacted if a Democratic president said something like that? In this case, however, we don’t have to speculate.

    As some readers may recall, back in 2012 Barack Obama made the obvious and true point that businesses depend on public investments in things like roads and education as well as on their own efforts. Referring to those public investments, he said, “You didn’t build that.” The usual suspects pounced, taking the line out of context and claiming that he was disrespecting entrepreneurs; Mitt Romney made this claim a centerpiece of his presidential campaign.

    Attacks on Obama as being anti-business were, of course, made in bad faith. Trump, however, really is denouncing businesses and blaming them for the problems his policies have created. And tariffs aren’t the only policy area where Trump and American business are now at odds.

    No, from a business perspective, Obama was every bit the rancid piece of shit president Trump is.  Between tax hikes, regulations, and his signature legislative achievement taking an already overregulated sector of the economy, one about 20% of the then $14 Trillion US Economy–and regulate it some more.

    Seriously, the 40 work week no longer exists because of Obama.

    Some of Trump’s most consequential actions involve his frantic efforts to dismantle environmental regulation. Unlike tariffs, this may at first sound like something business would want.

    It turns out, however, that many businesses want to keep those regulations in place. Major oil and gas producers oppose Trump’s relaxation of rules on emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Major auto producers have come out against Trump’s attempt to roll back fuel efficiency standards. In fact, in a move that has reportedly enraged Trump, several companies have reached an agreement with the state of California to stick with Obama-era rules despite the change in federal policy.

    Without reading any of your NY Times links to back up your claims, I am confident those businesses came out against those new regulations for one of three reasons:

    • They lobbied to put those regualtions in place, locking up their market share away from new competitors (like the ones against methane emissions, since methane is basically a fancy word for natural gas).
    • They spent a lot of money setting up their businesses to accommodate the old rules, and regulatory compliance is ALWAYS a cost center.
    • They are licking the collective asshole of the woke brigade

    When Trump won his upset victory in 2016, many investors assumed that his rule would be good for business. And he did indeed give corporations a huge tax cut — which has almost entirely been used for higher dividends and stock buybacks, with workers getting essentially nothing.

    You are a tiresome fuckwit.  OMG BUYBACKS!  Your going to give yourself twizzledick with how much you keep fucking that dead horse.

    Aside from the tax cut, however, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Trumpism is bad for business. Or more precisely, it’s bad for productive business.

    Imagine yourself as the head of a business that plans and expects to be around for a long time. Sure, you’d like to pay less in taxes and not have to comply with costly regulations. But you also want to invest in your company’s future. And to do that, you need some assurance that the rules of the game will be stable, so that whatever investments you make now aren’t suddenly made worthless by future shifts in policy.

    The big complaint business has about Trump’s trade war isn’t just that tariffs raise costs and prices, while foreign retaliation is cutting off access to important markets. It is that businesses can’t make plans when policy zigzags in response to the president’s whims. They don’t want to invest in anything that relies on a global supply chain, because that supply chain might unravel with Trump’s next tweet. But they can’t invest on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs will be permanent, either; you never know when or whether he’ll declare victory and surrender.

    Except they ARE shifting production out of China.  If you pulled your head out of your ass and paid any fucking attention you would know some of them started a year ago…They may not even raise prices all that much because many of them are keeping their supply chains out of the US.  Turns out a hedge against instability between countries might be to move your assets affected by instability out of one of those fucking countries.

    Environmental policy, it turns out, is similar. Business leaders aren’t do-gooders, but they are realists. Most of them understand that climate change is happening, that it’s dangerous, and that we’ll eventually have to transition to a low-emissions economy. They want to spend now to secure their place in that future economy; they know that investments that worsen climate change are bound to be long-run losers. But they’ll hold off on investing in our energy future as long as conspiracy theorists who consider global warming a gigantic hoax — and/or vindictive politicians determined to erase Obama’s achievements — keep rewriting the rules.

    Cigar cutting is yet another service I provide…

    To be fair, however, some kinds of business do thrive under Trumpism — namely, businesses that aren’t in it for the long run, operations whose strategy is to take the money and run. These are good times for mining companies that rush in to extract whatever they can, leaving a poisoned landscape behind; for real estate speculators sponsoring dubious ventures that take advantage of newly created tax loopholes; for for-profit colleges that leave their students with worthless degrees and crippling debt.

    In other words, under Trump it’s springtime for grifters.

    But to say the obvious, these smash-and-grab operations aren’t the kinds of business we want to thrive. Put it this way: Remaking the U.S. economy in the image of Trump University isn’t exactly making America great again.

    Yes, because you know all about running a business.  One thing you seem to miss is the next president is going to rewrite the rules, and the next one, and the next one, and the next one.  Its what the statists you keep supporting do.  The Gordon Geckos of the world are going to adapt to the new dumbass rules they come up with and find a way to continue making a profit.

  • A thought on competition and the public sector

    Hello and welcome back to Pie ponders in which Pie tries to understand things. This is a different type of Pie ponders, in which I try to better understand what drives certain arguments with the help of crowdsourcing – that is where you bunch come in. You need to use crowdsourcing and big data and machine learning these days to stay relevant you know, basic bitch reasoning don’t cut it no more. So to proceed…

    Today I focus on the debate about private X and public – aka state managed tax funded through the lens of competition. As a libertarian I think you know where I stand. Off course, I have my biases, and I try to listen to the opposite opinion. In this case I am, as in most others, at a loss to understand the fetish some have for the concept of public and their opposition to competition. I leave it to the commenters to point out where my thoughts and arguments may be wrong.

    I need a receipt for that receiptTo generalize, we want X, and doing it requires people, materials, management, in general cash, mullah, dough. So the debate boils down to who uses these things better and I struggle to understand how some believe it is the government.

    So what are the arguments? One would be against profit, which supposedly takes away money from the actual task at hand, but this is, in itself, irrelevant. If X is accomplished better and cheaper overall while some money goes to profit than when it does not, profit is not in any way a waste. It is a cost of efficiency. Profit is, in fact, often a valuable signal. It tells a company whether they are doing what they should. In commie Romania, many factories were not driven by profit and had no competition to speak of, and yet, shockingly, were extremely inefficient, had stocks of products that no one wanted and shortages of products in demand, all of poor quality, and overall no way of knowing if the way they produce is good. In general if a company changes something and profit improves, they get the info that the change was good.

    Beyond the first argument, some people seem to have the ridiculous notion that for certain X, no one should make a profit, because that is somehow immoral. Why this is, I could never understand. Beyond money bad. There is the argument that profit incentivizes people to maximize profit instead of maximizing X, but in a market situation that is not distorted by government, most times the two things go hand in hand. And furthermore, how can one know they are maximizing X?

    In the end, all people want profit. Or better said increased satisfaction. But in the public healthcare systems of Europe, doctors who at dinner parties will claim “making a profit from healthcare is immoral” – happened to me several times – and a month later strike for higher salaries. But that is not profit somehow.

    A second observation of mine is humans overall perform better when there is competition. This should be a straightforward fact, but somehow isn’t. This has two factors. One, simply because humans can easily get complacent if there is not something to keep them on their toes. Second, if you have different concepts, ideas, methods to organize an activity, there really is no better way to see which works best except letting them compete. Due to the many complexities of the world, second and third order effects, unknown unknowns, you cannot outright say which way is better, which is what bureaucrats and governments claim to do.

    X, people will say, it is too important to be left to competition. Or competition does not work for X. Why competition would work for something else and not for X is not always clearly explained. But what is the alternative? The dream of a group of “experts” figuring out the best way, which does not work nor has it ever worked?

    The fact about X – healthcare, education, whatever – being too important is also not a valid idea. The thing about competition is that it either works or it doesn’t. It is not it works for product A but not for product B. Because the product is not the key here, the human is. The importance of X does not in any way change the fact that humans do not function efficiently without competition. You need buildings, people, and supplies. As such these are subject to the same economic laws as coffee or clothing.

    I find it strange how people believe the human perceived importance of something changes the underlying issues. If a plane is crashing, physics cares not about how important it is to the passengers to recover. If competition is necessary to make TVs, it is necessary for healthcare.

    The way I see it is this: the things that are key is not the field or product, but humans and human nature. Going from cars to medicine does not change the fact that humans are involved, and the same constraints of humanity apply in the same fashion. You still need labor, allocation of capital, decision making. There is still self-interest,  dishonesty, ego, the whole package. These do not go away because healthcare is important.

    There are many bad arguments against competition. One is someone loses. Sometimes sure, but the loser is not taken out back and shot. Yes from competing ideas, if one is better, the worse one is abandoned, that is a good thing. Unless every single thing needs to be implemented so someone does not feel bad. Another is working together is better than against each other. Which, like most things meant for children, idiots and leftists, sounds superficially good. Until you realize that cooperation has limits and it will hit the invariable issue of being unable to automatically see what works best from multiple solutions.

    Why play? Experts can just decide who would winCompetition is a race to the bottom is also popular, although what this is based on escapes me. Certainly not of the high quality of government monopoly services or the how bureaucrats strive to make things easier on the public. Not when privatizing certain services or introducing competition usually is accompanied by significant improvements in efficiency. In competitive private sectors, plenty of high quality products are made, unlike government owned businesses thorough history. So what is this race to the bottom?

    We cannot gamble with our children’s future, I heard. But what is the alternative? Sticking them all in a failing system? Or the alternative is the magic committee of experts solving all problems?

    In the end, decisions have to be made, and the general idea for some seems it is better to be made by bureaucrats than by people receiving a given service. While I do understand how this could be an issue for emergency services – cannot choose hospitals while you are unconscious, there are multiple ways to solve it in a private system.

    There have been a myriad of studies for private vs public education, healthcare and such. And the concept that public works better is simply not supported, no matter how much proponents claim. This will not be solved anytime soon given the massive bias in all studies made, by either side, the massive amount of information existing and missing, and the impossibility of controlled experiments. I will not do a literature review on this, I am trying to approach this by basic reason. Some strict empiricists will dismiss such arguments, but I do not see strict empiricism working in this case.

    A further issue is that, when you look at it, in general, bureaucrats are not always the most competent of people. Certainly, the best and brightest seldom dream of becoming civil servants. Nor are they more motivated, more caring or in general better people, and outside leftist delusions you have no reason to believe they would be. Most countries on this planet have plenty of literature and art mocking bureaucrats. So it is quite a known phenomenon.

    Rockets are phalic patriarchal and not woke, thats why they need competition But I want to give an example of what I mean. The significant innovation and cost reduction introduced in the field of space exploration. SpaceX – whatever you may think of E.M. – is quite the success. This was clear when European government audits a while back informed the European Space Agency that it will be in no way competitive in the future if it does not radically change its MO. And the ESA and Ariane and their other contractors reacted by starting to research reusable rockets, using in part SpaceX innovations, by contracting with more companies and startup, by pushing innovation. This raises the question: why did they not really do this before competition forced it? Why I think this is relevant? Because, if you want to see a field which does attract the best and brightest, this is it. These are people who are at the top of their field, the best education, and furthermore many of them do work they enjoy and are passionate about. And still, without some competition, they were complacent for years and the innovation rate quite slowed down. If in this field this happened, why expect differently for others?

  • Economics Corner with Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    Last week Krugman discussed billionaires that back Trump

    Whoever came up with the phrase “useful idiots” — it’s often credited to Lenin, but there’s no evidence he ever said it — was on to something. There are times when dangerous political movements derive important support from people who will, if these movements achieve and hold power, be among their biggest victims.

    I myself would have guessed it was Khrushchev but it never really mattered to me to look it up. Odd that you of all people are openly discussing the term…

    Certainly I found myself thinking of the phrase when I read about the Trump fund-raiser held at the Hamptons home of Stephen Ross, chairman of a company that holds controlling stakes in Equinox and SoulCycle.

    Most reporting on the Ross event has focused on the possible adverse effects on his business empire: The young, educated, urban fitness fanatics who go to his gyms don’t like the idea that their money is supporting Donald Trump. But the foolishness of Ross’s Trump support goes well beyond the potential damage to his bottom line.

    I mean, if you’re a billionaire who also happens to be a racist, supporting Trump makes perfect sense: You know what you’re buying. But if you’re supporting Trump not because of his racism but despite it, because you expect him to keep your taxes low, you’re being, well, an idiot.

    That assumes Trump is a racist.  The problem you aren’t seeing is it is a nearly meaningless term.  Anybody that even has a remotely tangential support of Trump, or a single policy of his is now branded a racist by the left.  Because there is absolutely no other explanation that somebody might want to see immigration law enforced, or even might play along with his shenanigans to see something resembling free trade with China.

    No other reason whatsoever…

    Never mind how unlikely it is for an open racist to become a billionaire.  If you openly disapprove of nearly any group normal people will want nothing to do with it because last I checked, pretty much nobody approves of racism.

    It’s true that Trump (breaking all his campaign promises) has indeed cut taxes on the wealthy, and will surely cut them further if re-elected. By contrast, whoever the Democrats nominate is likely to raise those taxes if she or he wins the general election, perhaps substantially.

    Depends on the promise, then again–there are so many politicians that manager to keep their campaign promises…

    But let’s get real. If you’re a billionaire, you don’t need the extra money. At that level, purchasing power has nothing to do with the quality of life; having a 45,000-square-foot house instead of just 40,000, or flying to one of your multiple other residences in a bigger private jet, won’t make you significantly happier.

    People who’ve studied the extremely rich argue that money, for them, is largely not about being able to buy things but is instead a way of keeping score; their satisfaction comes not from more consumption but from overtaking their perceived peers.

    And tax cuts don’t help on that dimension, since your peers get the same tax breaks you do.

    Hey shithead, do you really think we’re stupid enough to believe a billionaire like Tom Steyer with large investments in renewable energy projects get the exact same tax breaks as other billionaires like I dunno, the Waltons?  I would argue their businesses operate in significantly different ways and what they collect from them and the taxes they pay…or in the case of Steyer, what they don’t pay vary.

    More to the point, Trumpism is about much more than tax cuts: It’s an attempt to end the rule of law and impose an authoritarian, white nationalist regime. And even billionaires should be terrified about what their lives will be like if that attempt succeeds.

    This is especially true if you’re a member of a minority, even if your skin happens to be white. Ross is Jewish — and anyone Jewish has to be completely ignorant of history not to know that when bigotry runs free, we’re always next in line for persecution.

    Trump’s daughter converted to Judaism…that makes her Jewish…drop the orange man anti-Semite bullshit….you (((dumbfuck))).

    In fact, the ingredients for an American pogrom are already in place. The El Paso shooting suspect, like many right-wing terrorists, is a believer in “replacement theory” — the claim that immigration is part of a vast conspiracy to replace whites with people of color. And who’s behind that conspiracy? You know who: “Jews will not replace us,” declared the torch-carrying marchers in Charlottesville.

    He was also a psychopath that was afraid of robots replacing workers, engaged in eco-hysteria, and had no compunction with murdering a crowd of people, what’s your point?

    Is Trump a replacement theory guy? The replacement theorists think so.

    In any case, billionaires who imagine that their wealth will insulate them from the purges and insecurity of an authoritarian regime are deluding themselves. Look at Vladimir Putin’s Russia, a place Trump surely sees as a role model. Putin certainly coddles an inner circle of oligarchs. But he has shown no hesitation about using a politicized legal system to persecute and ruin his critics, no matter how wealthy.

    Oh, and don’t say it can’t happen here. The man who prompts chants of “lock her up,” who has declared the independent media “enemies of the people,” has made it abundantly clear that he’d love to engage in politicized prosecutions of anyone who gets in his way.

    Has he locked her up?  Has he locked YOU up? You run your mouth non-stop about the orange man, if he was half the authoritarian YOU think he is you would already be in a federal prison fellating your cellmate in exchange for protection from the Aryan Brotherhood.

    Again, there are surely some wealthy Americans who want to live in that kind of country. But most Trump-supporting billionaires would probably be horrified at the prospect. So what are they thinking raising money for a would-be authoritarian?

    The answer, of course, is that they aren’t thinking. Instead of considering what a consolidation of Trumpist power would mean, they’re reacting mindlessly out of a combination of greed and ego.

    By the way, the greed part is obvious. But it has also been clear since the Obama years that a fair number of the superrich aren’t satisfied with being immensely wealthy; they also want adulation. They expect to be praised as heroic job creators and are enraged at any suggestion that some of their number may have behaved badly, let alone that they may have benefited from a rigged system.

    There are a lot of people that work for billionaires.  I don’t recall working for a homeless guy, at least not full time.

    The fact of the matter is billionaires are probably just as diverse and opinionated as anybody else.  They probably have personal reasons for doing what they do, who they support, and where they put their money.  They are probably motivated by different things, that’s how individualism works you see…

    The problem is where people like you come in and insist that its good the little people will boycott some upscale spinning gym, if you want to call it that (see you tonight Warty).  Decisions in the market used to just be who suits your preferences best for a price you can agree on.  For people like you its good that we have products and services geared towards specific political ideologies or for specific causes a subset of activists.  You can’t buy wood from Home Depot, they support Trump. You can’t buy Nutella, it contains palm oil (fuck those orange monkeys), you can’t eat at Chick-fil-a, they don’t like gays (even when the manager is clearly a rug muncher), you can’t buy from Amazon because they treat their employee’s like shit. Suddenly I have to sit and decide between two separate products based on team politics.  Team politics sucks balls.

    Fuck you Krugman!

    Hence the hatred for even reasonable, pro-market progressives like, say, Elizabeth Warren. It’s not just that these progressives might make billionaires a bit poorer, but that they make them feel small.

    But this is no time for such pettiness. Vast wealth brings many privileges, and it will continue to do so even if progressive Democrats win big next year. What wealth doesn’t bring is the right to let self-indulgence turn you into a useful idiot, lending aid and comfort to a movement that’s trying to destroy America as we know it.

    That stupid broad again?  Now who’s the one being petty Mr. “The orange man is going to fucking destroy us all!”

  • Economics Corner Featuring Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    What?  You have a problem with me waiting for the 3 free monthly NY Times articles?

    Screw you, all of you, I’ve been busy.  Here’s Krugnuts’ article.

    I’ve seen a number of people suggest that the 2020 election will be a sort of test: Can a sufficiently terrible president lose an election despite a good economy? And that is, in fact, the test we’d be running if the election were tomorrow.

    Shockingly, he recognizes the day he wrote this, was in July of 2019.

    On one side, Donald Trump wastes no opportunity to remind us how awful he is. His latest foray into overt racism delights his base but repels everyone else. On the other side, he presides over an economy in which unemployment is very low and real G.D.P. grew 3.2 percent over the past year.

    But the election won’t be tomorrow, it will be an exhausting 15 months from now. Trump’s character won’t change, except possibly for the worse. But the economy might look significantly different.

    So let’s talk about the Trump economy.

    If you think this is going to be a bunch of hand waiving, some sleight of hand, your right.

    The first thing you need to know is that the Trump tax cut caused a huge rise in the budget deficit, which the administration expects to hit $1 trillion this year, up from less than $600 billion in 2016. This tidal wave of red ink is even more extraordinary than it looks, because it has taken place despite falling unemployment, which usually leads to a falling deficit.

    Strange to say, none of the Republicans who warned of a debt apocalypse under President Barack Obama have protested the Trump deficits. (Should we put Paul Ryan’s face on milk cartons?) For that matter, even the centrists who obsessed over federal debt during the Obama years have been pretty quiet. Clearly, deficits only matter when there’s a Democrat in the White House.

    Were you warning us about debt apocalypse while Obama was the president?  You do understand anything and everything you write and publish on the internet is as permanent as genital warts?  Tell me you aren’t nearly as stupid as you sound right now, just to entertain a bunch of partisan whores?

    Oh, and the imminent fiscal crisis people like Erskine Bowles used to warn about keeps not happening: Long-term interest rates remain very low.

    Now, the evidence on the effects of deficit spending is clear: It gives the economy a short-run boost, even when we’re already close to full employment. If anything, the growth bump under Trump has been smaller than you might have expected given the deficit surge, perhaps because the tax cut was so badly designed, perhaps because Trump’s trade wars have deterred business spending.

    For now, however, Deficit Man is beating Tariff Man. As I said, we’ve seen good growth over the past year.

    But the tax cut was supposed to be more than a short-run Keynesian stimulus. It was sold as something that would greatly improve the economy’s long-run performance; in particular, lower corporate tax rates were supposed to lead to a huge boom in business investment that would, among other things, lead to sharply higher wages. And this big rise in long-run growth would supposedly create a boom in tax revenues, offsetting the upfront cost of tax cuts.

    None of this is happening. Corporations are getting to keep a lot more of their profits, but they’ve been using the money to buy back their own stock, not raise investment. Wages are rising, but not at an extraordinary pace, and many Americans don’t feel that they’re sharing in the benefits of a growing economy.

    The buybacks…always with the butt-fucking buybacks…I don’t have time to explain this shit to you again.

    Wages are indeed rising, they always have been.  Given that 56% of the American population receives health insurance through their employer, as part of a package of compensation–that is theyre health insurance is part of how they get fucking paid, and since those costs keep going up for reasons you never seem to comprehend, we can safely say wages are going up.

    And this is probably as good as it gets.

    I’m not forecasting a recession. It could happen, and we’re very badly positioned to respond if it does, but the more likely story is just a slowdown as the effects of the deficit splurge wear off. In fact, if you believe the “nowcasters” (economists who try to get an early read on the economy from partial data), that slowdown is already happening. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York believes that the economy’s growth was down to 1.5 percent in the second quarter.

    BULLSHIT.  BULL-FUCKING-SHIT.  YOU PREDICTED A GLOBAL RECESSION LAST FEBRUARY.

    And it’s hard to see where another economic bump can come from. With Democrats controlling the House, there won’t be another big tax cut. The Fed may cut interest rates, but those cuts are already priced into long-term interest rates, which are what matter for spending, and the economy seems to be slowing anyway.

    Which brings us back to the 2020 election.

    Political scientists have carried out many studies of the electoral impact of the economy, and as far as I know they all agree that what matters is the trend, not the level. The unemployment rate was still over 7 percent when Ronald Reagan won his 1984 landslide; it was 7.7 percent when Obama won in 2012. In both cases, however, things were clearly getting better.

    That’s probably not going to be the story next year. If we don’t have a recession, unemployment will still be low. But economic growth will probably be meh at best — which means, if past experience is any guide, that the economy won’t give Trump much of a boost, that it will be more or less a neutral factor.

    And on the other hand, Trump’s awfulness will remain.

    I take it you haven’t watched the shit show that was the Dem debates?

    Republicans will, of course, portray the Democratic nominee — whoever she or he may be — as a radical socialist poised to throw the border open to hordes of brown-skinned rapists.

    Wait, which one is not effectively saying that?  Biden?  That bald guy from Montana?  Hell, half the reason I like the Yang dude is his dick isn’t big enough to fuck everybody.

    And one has to admit that this strategy might work, although it failed last year in the midterms. To be honest, I’m more worried about the effects of sexism if the nominee is a woman — not just the sexism of voters, but that of the news media, which still holds women to different standards.

    But as far as the economy goes, the odds are that Trump’s deficit-fueled bump came too soon to do him much political good.

    Good.  The more people wise up and see the political class as the retards they are, the less likely they’ll vote to let them run their lives.

  • Monopoly Money

    There is a meme going around depicting Monopoly, the classic Parker Brother’s game from the 1930s, if the board was designed in a manner to suit Kamala Harris.  I found it funny, but I also thought it was missing a couple spaces for taxes and began thought experiments on some of the other candidates and how Monopoly would look for them.  Warren for example would be nothing but spaces for Income Tax and Luxury Tax. Sanders would alternate between tax spaces, communal housing, players wouldn’t be able to purchase any of the properties, nor would they be able to land on Boardwalk and Park place as they are both Dachas, nobody gets to be the racecar, and of course Sanders himself is the banker and only pays in black bread.  Wiliamson would be a bunch of pot dispensaries, yoga studios, hipster eateries, the railroads are electric and the pieces are all different colored crystals.  Booker has the distinction of simultaneously having or not having a version of Monopoly with his name as being racist.

    The racecar token is not an option in any of these versions…

    Then I got to Yang…more tax spaces and you get $1000 when you pass go?

    This is my review of Santa Fe Brewing Co. Chicken Killer Barleywine.

    Yang’s campaign is focused on the idea of a “freedom dividend” that in a sense sounds like a UBI of $1000 per person over 18 per month.  That’s the about all anybody focuses on in the media, so I decided to look up the proposal itself and it is straightforward enough.

    This is independent of one’s work status or any other factor. This would enable all Americans to pay their bills, educate themselves, start businesses, be more creative, stay healthy, relocate for work, spend time with their children, take care of loved ones, and have a real stake in the future.

    Other than regular increases to keep up the cost of living, any change to the Freedom Dividend would require a constitutional amendment.

    It will be illegal to lend or borrow against one’s Dividend.

    A Universal Basic Income at this level would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent—or about $2.5 trillion by 2025—and it would increase the labor force by 4.5 to 4.7 million people.  Putting money into people’s hands and keeping it there would be a perpetual boost and support to job growth and the economy.

    Yang’s FAQ page states his plan does not take the place of other social programs like Veteran’s benefits or Social Security since both are either paid into or earned.  This is in contrast with Milton Friedman’s Negative Income Tax; while often portrayed as a UBI scheme it is better described as way Friedman balanced his Chicago School philosophy, Minarchism, and everyone else’s desire for welfare programs.  Not paying income taxes is a way to give low wage earners extra money without the disincentive to work.  The same FAQ page quotes Friedman out of context as a way to convince the voter UBI is not a new idea.  He even quotes Thomas Payne.

    Welcome to Alaska…here’s $1000

    Yang also goes on to compare this scheme to the dividend from the Alaska Permanent Fund (APF) given to residents of Alaska as an example of how this might work on the national level.  The APF however functions much differently and is not funded through a tax, it is a state owned wealth fund and the dividend paid is based on the overall performance of the investments in that fund.  The amount paid therefore varies, and it is also subject to strict definitions of “resident”.

    There is also the part where there are what, 100 people living in Alaska?

    “Foolish Irishman, stop this at once! I’m white! Can’t you see I’m white?”

    Interestingly enough, there are not many recent arguments out there discussing the merits or demerits of the idea, other than this article from FEE that is mostly making the argument that once a government program starts it never dies and gets bigger.  While true, I was hoping for something a little more in depth and  FEE to their credit does deliver in an older article.  I expect this to change as the primary election rolls along since unlike nearly all of that field, Yang is actually likeable.

    As far as a barleywine goes this one is a bit unusual since you can almost serve it ice cold and chug it.  Not recommended for a barleywine since it should be served at the almost universal optimum temperature (50F) for beer and there it starts to feel more like what one expects from this style.  Its deep red and a bit of a sweet aftertaste but overall, a nice complex brew but I’ve had better.  Santa Fe Brewing Co. Chicken Killer Barleywine 3.5/5.

     

  • Economics Corner with Paul Krugman and Winston’s Mom

    She’ll be coming around the mounting when she comes…SHE”LL BE COMING AROUND THE MOUNTING WHEN SHE COMES….What?

     

    Here’s today’s piece where he tries to go to town all over Lizzies butthole.

    Not long ago, political pundits were writing off Elizabeth Warren’s political chances, but recent polling makes her an increasingly plausible contender, and her comeback has been getting her a sudden wave of favorable media coverage.

    Will she actually be the Democratic nominee? If so, will she win? I have absolutely no idea. Nor does anyone else.

    Oh sure. NOW you won’t make predictions professor limpdick…

    But the political strategy powering her comeback is interesting. And I think many observers are missing a key reason her strategy seems to be working — namely, that her agenda is radical in content and implications, but well grounded in evidence and serious scholarship.

    Normally, would-be presidential nominees campaign on some combination of personal narrative and soaring rhetoric promoting broad themes: “I’m a war hero/symbol of the American dream/longtime challenger of the Establishment, and as president I’ll bring us together/drain the swamp/fight the power.”

    Warren, by contrast, has been rolling out substantive, detailed policy proposals — many, many substantive, detailed policy proposals. Traditional punditry says that this should be a turnoff, that voters’ eyes will just glaze over at the proliferation of white papers.

    But Warren has managed to turn relentless wonkery into a defining aspect of her political persona. Supporters show up at her rallies wearing T-shirts that proclaim “Warren has a plan for that!” And she is, by all accounts, managing to make earnest policy discussion a way to connect with her audiences.

    In a way, the closest parallel to the Warren phenomenon — although it’s one I hate to draw — was the temporary rise of Paul Ryan, former speaker of the House (remember him?). Like Warren, Ryan built himself up by cultivating an image as a smart policy wonk.

    But even aside from the fact that Ryan’s basic agenda was to take from the poor and give to the rich, he was a phony, whose proposals didn’t add up and didn’t address real problems. Warren, by contrast, is the real deal. You don’t have to support the specifics of her plans to realize that they’re the product of hard thinking, drawing on the work of respected economic researchers.

    I do remember him.  I also recall he failed to beat Joe Biden in a debate, when Joe’s argument was mostly to laugh at him.  He’s an establishment cuck, but predictably you don’t see the irony in your analogy.  Both are “policy wonks” because both think all they have to do is argue we must put them into power, and only then will they make everything all better.

    In that case, however, why haven’t other presidential contenders been rolling out comparable plans? The answer, I’d suggest, is that Warren — herself a significant policy scholar — understood from the beginning something that other candidates are only beginning to grasp: The difference between being serious and being Serious.

    What I mean by being Serious is buying into inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom — the kind of conventional wisdom that in 2011, with unemployment still catastrophically high and interest rates at historic lows, created an elite consensus that we should stop worrying about jobs and focus on … entitlement reform. What I mean by being serious is paying attention to actual evidence on the effects of economic and social programs.

    What Warren gets is that serious analysis is a lot more favorable to a progressive agenda than Serious conventional wisdom, which is obsessed with keeping taxes low and restraining spending. Leading experts on the economics of taxation favor substantial increases in tax rates on high incomes and wealth. Top economists studying social spending argue that there are huge benefits to higher spending on early child care.

    As a result, Warren has been able to lay out plans that are very progressive but also well grounded in evidence and analysis.

    Yes, the TOPPIEST of TOP.MEN economists want to steal from other people, tie them up in needless taxes and regulations, douse them all with warming lubricants to make it easier for them to mount on TOP of the people they just stole from and go STEVE SMITH on their asses!  That’s the type of TOP.MEN economists TOP.MEN like Krugnuts think are TOP.MEN.

    Do her rivals share her understanding that progressivism and solid intellectual foundations can go hand in hand? In the past, at least, Joe Biden was worryingly Serious; he was deeply involved in the Obama administration’s fortunately unsuccessful attempt to negotiate a budget Grand Bargain that would have slashed Social Security and Medicare, reflecting the Beltway’s obsession with entitlement cuts. It’s not yet clear whether he has moved on.

    Bernie Sanders, by contrast, has never bought into the Beltway consensus, and he is clearly committed to a very ambitious agenda. But his policy specifics remain oddly vague. Most notably, we still have very little idea how he would pay for Medicare for All.

    My guess is that this is in part because Sanders sees himself as being in a war with the Establishment very broadly defined. As a result, his policy team, such as it is, consists of people who devote a lot of energy to attacking mainstream policy research, leaving them unable and/or unwilling to incorporate its findings into specific policy proposals.

    Now, none of this means that Warren will be the nominee. Many Democratic voters clearly prefer Biden’s affable conventionality, and many others share Sanders’s tear-the-whole-thing-down instincts. All we really know is that there turns out to be a significant constituency most pundits probably didn’t even realize was there: voters who want a significant policy move to the left, but also want a candidate who really seems to have thought things through.

    We don’t yet know whether this constituency is big enough to be decisive in the Democratic primaries. But if it is, Warren has a plan for that.

    The fun part about all of these plans that Lizzie is putting out for people like Krugman to beat his meat over, is that Lizzie is running for president.  The president doesn’t have the Constitutional power to implement nearly any of these plans, that power lies with Congress.  Lizzie is presently a Senator, one would think if she has all of these plans she would be better able to put these into action in the senate.  Why hasn’t she?  Here’s an Atlantic article from 2015 that questions her abilities as a Senator, and makes a case that she’s effective in her ineffectiveness.  Here’s another from Boston Globe from 2017 that describes her accomplishments as “emaciatingly thin”.  For somebody that wants to lecture us on the difference between a serious candidate and a Serious candidate, one would think you could at least find one that actually succeeded or at least appears to be successful in their present position.

    Then again, you’re an night clerk at shit-covered Motel 6 in Newark having trouble fluffing a hobo, that got a column masquerading as an economist. So how the hell would you know the difference?