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  • Thursday Afternoon Links

    So, big demo coming up a week from today. I accidentally broke a template in M$’s crappy portals app and I have no idea how to undo it. I guess I’ll just show someone else’s site if I have to. I’ll just come in hot on Thursday and wing it.

    We’re a CRISPR edit away from curing this sinister genetic defect.

    Even the Marines can’t cure Florida Man.

    Wild horses can’t be dragged away (from Dorian).  And the rarely seen “square grouper” appears to be washing ashore in Florida due to Hurricane Dorian

    Someone linked comments to the story of San Fran calling the NRA a terrorist organization wondering “where are all those good guys with guns” in Texas. Here’s one. Good on ya, ma’am. I think you need a higher capacity purse gun, but 50% hit rate ain’t bad with a snubby.

     

  • Thursday Morning Links

    Go ahead and pencil him in for the finals.

    The US Open is winding down as the path for Serena is laid clear for her to tie Margaret Court’s record. On the Mens side, Nadal cruised into the semifinals. But none of that matters as we are officially entering the NFL season tonight. Meanwhile on the diamonds of America, your winners were: New York (both AL and NL), Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Boston, San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona, Oakland, and Los Angeles (NL). And with most of the divisional races being locked up, we anxiously watch the chase for best record in each league, best record overall and the wild card races.

    This was a fine movie.

    If you were born this day, congratulations.  You share it with Louis XIV (the Sun King), outlaw (and probably NRA Member according to Dems) Jesse James, baseball player Nap Lajoie, economist Paul Volcker, comedic genius Bob Newhart, baseball player Bill Mazeroski, actor and reverse mortgage pitchman William Devane, (the worst) James Bond actor George Lazenby, the lovely Raquel Welch, German director Werner Herzog, possibly the greatest showman in history Freddie Mercury, “Gung-Ho” and “Beetlejuice” star Michael Keaton, and moron Rose McGowan.

    That’s a pretty fine list, actually. And don’t even try to fight me over a couple of the claims I made there. I’m right and you all know it. But I digress. And anyway, its time for…the links!

    At least he’s not an NRA member, eh comrade?

    San Francisco goes completely insane and declares the National Rifle Association a domestic terrorist organization.  And they want to prohibit any supporters or members from getting government contracts in the shit-strewn city.  I guess not even the people tasked with picking up the millions of heroin needles or spraying the shit off the sidewalks will be safe if they’re a member.  LOL, just kidding. There’s nobody doing either of those. But seriously, this is an ugly and libelous statement and I’m sure it will cascade into further polarization and left-wing violence against those who just want to maintain the Second Amendment.

    I say, indubitably!”

    Dorian tore the ass out of a couple islands in The Bahamas but pretty much missed Florida entirely. But that won’t stop the media and local/state governments from scaring the shit out of people as it churns toward…shit, nobody really knows where. Well, they all know it’ll probably go back out to sea after coming within a short distance of the Carolinas. But that doesn’t get page clicks, does it?

    So the Remainers were saying Boris was undermining democracy by not holding an election. Then when he called for snap elections ahead of the Oct 31 Brexit deadline, they voted the proposal down. They also managed to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Which basically means the EU has the UK’s balls in a vise and can do whatever they want by refusing to negotiate at all (which is what they’ve done all along) and the will of our Limey cousins will have been thwarted by the very people they wanted to disassociate from.  That’s pretty sad, yet unexpected from across the pond.

    What could possibly go wrong? Seriously, this might be the least baked idea ever. I will eagerly await Trump denying the unsourced, uncorroborated piece and then a back and forth of retarded media pieces for a week or so until the next shiny object comes along.

    Way to go Navy!!! You bunch of fat fucks.  I mean, you’re fatter than the Air Force.  The fucking Air Force is in better shape than you!!!!! Oh well, after the new PT tests are implemented next month, half the soldiers, airmen and semen out there will be on a program anyway.

    Jesus, what an amateur. Everybody knows you put that in the checked luggage so its got more room to move around. A checked bag is way too small.

    An idiot engages an intelligent person. Let’s roll the tape to see how this goes… Oh, it results in one person accusing the other of having a bunch of domestic abusers and violent criminals as friends.  And then that person gets white-knighted by a bunch of betas. So basically, the same shit that always happens when this simpleton decides to make a point on twitter.

    OK, here we go.  Song 1.  Song 2. And one that gets too little love…Song 3.

    Go enjoy that and have a great day, friends!

  • Subaru Horror Theater Vol, 9: Dream Big

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR-38oCMTEc

     

    “Push her,” her father said.

    “Daaaaaad,” Emily said. “Don’t even joke about that.”

    “Push her off the mountain,” her father said, without a trace of humor. Unconsciously, she drew her younger sister closer and wrapped both arms around her.

    “Do what your father says, dear,” her mother said. “Your sister is only six. There’s plenty of time for us to have another.”

    “Emily?” her sister asked, tipping her head back to look up at her sister.

    “Dad’s just being silly, Sarah,” Emily told her, but she wasn’t able to keep the uncertainty out of her voice.

    “It’ll be quick. Four, maybe five seconds. Look at those rocks down there,” her mother said.

    “A little bit of terror and then nothingness. It will be a release,” her father said, in a low voice. A wind came down the peak that rose next to them and pushed the two sisters as if it was all part of the plan.

    “Emily?” Sarah asked again, blubbering, face smeared with tears. Emily kissed the top of her sister’s blonde mop of hair.

    “It’s just a joke, Shrimply,” Emily whispered into her ear.

    “So you are going to pretend that you love her now?” her mother asked cruelly. “You were on your phone the whole ride up. You didn’t say one word to your sister or me or your father.”

    Emily groaned and hunched over her sister protectively.

    “Mom?” Emily whispered.

    “We bought you that phone so we could contact you when we needed it, not for you to spend all your time with your face in it,” her mother said.

    “Probably some boy,” her father said. “They always come sniffing around when the blood starts.”

    A giant fist grabbed Emily’s stomach and squeezed. She wanted to vomit, to run, to scream. She was hugging her little sister so hard she thought she could hear the child’s bones creak. In her distraction, her mother darted forward and ripped her phone out of her hands.

    “We’ll just see who is so important that you ignore your family,” her mother said, a nasty laugh bubbling up from deep within her.

    “It’s lo…” Emily started and then made herself stop talking.

    “Passcode?” her mother shrieked. “So you are hiding something!”

    “Probably sending out pictures of herself to all them boys in her class,” her father said. “All her dirty parts on the internet.” Her father shook his head in disgust.

    Sarah was crying so hard she could barely catch her breath, snot and tears running off her face to drip onto her sister’s arms. She didn’t even register the fact that Emily took two quick steps back from the edge of the cliff when their parents were poking at her phone.

    “Passcode!” her father snapped.

    “N-n-no,” Emily said.

    “Now, or you both go over. Having an ugly kid with fucked up teeth is one thing, but I’m not letting a whore live in my house.”

    “Both would be easier,” her mother said. She mimed talking on the phone, “Oh, God. I told them they were too close to the cliff. But she was trying to get a photo for her Instagram.”

    “Passcode!” her father screamed.

    “3-4-9-2,” Emily told him.

    “Whore number,” her father muttered, jabbing the numbers into the phone.

    “You’ll need my thumbprint,” Emily said, walking Sarah to them before they could object. They were three feet from the edge as she offered up her thumb and her father pressed the phone to it.

    “Texts,” her mother said, looking over her father’s shoulder.

    “No, pictures,” her father replied. “I want to see what she’s been sending out. What if the guys at work saw this shit? Cucked by my own daughter!”

    Emily picked up Sarah and ran for the car, her shoes slapping against the ancient stone of the mountain. Sarah screamed in surprise.

    “WHERE DO YOU THINK YOU ARE GOING, YOUNG LADY?!?” her father bellowed. It was the voice that had to be obeyed when you were a child. The “about to run out into traffic” voice, the “about to fall off the roof” voice. Her legs and feet tried to comply, tried to ignore her brain and stop running. Emily screamed and managed to keep going. She opened the driver’s side door and threw her sister in, her shoulders and back protesting and got in herself. Her parents had barely covered half the distance before she had the car locked.

    “Out of that car, now!” her mother screeched.

    Her father patted his pockets and then patted them again just as Emily started the car, twisting the keys he had left in the ignition.

    “EMILY!” her father screamed.

    She hadn’t even had her first driving lesson yet. Her father promised to take her on several occasions and always broke his word. She stepped on the brake with her left foot and shifted to drive. She was still crying, she could barely see, her parents were just screaming blobs getting closer.

    “Get down there, Sarah,” she told her sister, pointing at the passenger floorboard. The girl, owl-eyed, slid down her seat bonelessly and curled into a tight ball.

    “I’LL DO IT! I’LL DO IT!” Emily screamed, but her father kept coming.

    She only hit him hard enough the first time to knock him down, backing up past her mother who shook with rage.

    He stood, holding his ribs, his mouth red with blood. “I SHOULD HAVE STOMPED YOU OUT OF HER CUNT THE MOMENT SHE TOLD ME!’ her father shouted.

    Emily felt like she was being stretched and stretched and stretched until something inside her went cold and calm.

    The second time she hit him, he flew over the edge of the cliff, his rage turning to comical surprise.

    Emily backed up again until she had her mother in front of the SUV. She watched her mother shake and gape her mouth open and close. There was a small part of Emily, way down deep, that was screaming, but it was easy to ignore.

    “Stay here,” Emily told Sarah. She took the keys out of the ignition and locked the Aspect with the fob. She balled up the keys in her hand and walked over to her mother.

    “What did you do? What did you do?” her mother asked on a loop.

    “I killed him, Mom,” Emily said gently. “Right over the cliff he wanted me to throw Sarah off.” Emily felt better than she ever had.

    “Maybe he…” her mother started.

    “Yeah, maybe he’s alright,” Emily said. She took her mother’s trembling arm. “You want to go look?”

    Her mother nodded like her head was on a spring. When she started walking toward the cliff, Emily plucked her phone from her mother’s nerveless fingers and put it in her jeans pocket.

    Emily braced herself when she and her mother looked over the edge of the cliff. Her father was not alright. He landed on an upturned knife blade of rock and split in half. His head and arms and torso where further down cliff face than his legs.

    “OH, GOD! OH, GOD!” her mother screamed. Emily swallowed a giggle that bubbled up her throat.

    Her mother turned and grabbed her with both arms and yelled in her face, “What are we GOING TO DO?”

    She didn’t have the rage and shock on her face like her husband when she fell, just a cow-like placidity and mild confusion. Emily looked over the edge of the cliff. Her mother had gone head-first into a crevasse and wedged there, her legs and feet in the air.

    Emily took in the view from the cliff and thought about how beautiful the spot was. It would be a shame when they put in the signs and the railing. Or they might block it off altogether. She took a number of rapid deep breaths and dialed 911.

    “My, my, my parents,” she stuttered, breathless and crying and with just the right amount of hysteria. “They were just trying to take a selfie! They fell! They fell!”

    She walked back to the car, repeating the story and telling the dispatcher sort of where they were. She inspected the Aspect. It looked fine except for a nondescript dent in the front bumper and a couple of drops of blood on the hood. She licked her thumb and said, “Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh,” to the dispatcher as she wiped the blood away. She cleaned the blood off her thumb with a rock while cradling the phone to her ear with her shoulder and then threw the rock off the cliff.

    “My phone battery,” she said before hanging up the phone, sounding distraught. She needed time to prep Sarah before emergency services arrived. Stupid parents die in a stupid accident. Maybe just tell Sarah to say nothing. Youngest daughter mute from shock.

    The Subaru, her Subaru now, beep-blooped when she unlocked it.

  • Wednesday Afternoon Links of Safety

    Well, my kids enjoyed a beautiful day off from school yesterday, courtesy of Hurricane Dorian. I mean, it rained for a couple of minutes in the afternoon, but that was the whole of it. Some hurricanes are like that. I sympathize with bureaucrats at all levels who are expected to DO SOMETHING!! five days before the storm is targeted to hit, when final track may be well outside of the Cone of Water Hoarding. For all the shit they take about it, at least in Florida, they’ve realized that it takes 2-3 days to do things like evacuate hospitals and stage relief efforts. It seems like huge overkill when the hurricane misses, but when it hits, people get saved.

    I think this is evidence of Global Climate Change, and also the coming super caldera eruption that will kill millions. So, are the watermelons rooting for or against?

    Way to conflate “radiation exposure” with medical imaging radiation exposure in calling MRI, CTs risky. How DARE! the peons want more medical imaging!

    Whoa, The Onion made a funny?

    Democrats propose Eminent Domain for AR-style rifles? I don’t know what else to call a “mandatory gun buyback”. Kelo wasn’t that big a deal, right? Takings of property are fine as long as they’re compensated.

  • The Hat and The Hair Extended Universe: The Squad

     

    whispers bubble up from nothingness

    “Straight pride parade? Like, what?!?” Sandy screeched. Illy looked up from her phone and Sheedy woke from her nap and they both grimaced at the braying Bronxite bartender.

    “Only LGBTIQCAPGNGFNBA people are allowed to feel any pride!” Sandy continued.

    Sheedy grunted and raised an eyebrow to Illy. She leaned over to Sheedy and whispered in Arabic, “The pervert alphabet.”

    Sheedy wrinkled her face in disgust and replied, “The yahud know no decency,” her hand slipping into a ward against evil.

    “Ours is the glorious struggle!” Sandy read off the card she kept in her pocket. “History is ours!”

    “You said you would tweet about the abuses of the yahud today,” Sheedy reminded Sandy.

    “But what about the Green New Deal?” Sandy asked.

    “The yahud are behind global warming,” Illy said, not looking up from her phone. Sheedy and Illy had taught the buxom dimwit that “yahud” was Arabic for “Isreali.”

    Sandy nodded, and began putting on another layer of matte lipstick and used her phone to check her hair and take a number of selfies.

     

     

    scattered and sparse like the dust between the stars

    “We should order lunch,” Sheedy said. “Where is the intern?”

    Illy’s phone pinged repeatedly, like a cheerful Geiger counter. She looked at it for a moment and giggled.

    “What?” Sheedy demanded. “What has happened?”

    “He has sent me another,” she said and smiled.

    “How many pictures of his kafir penis do you need?” Sheedy asked.

    “Dick pics?” Sandy asked excitedly. “I love dick pics! Lemme see, lemme see.”

    Illy handed her the phone and Sandy studied the pale penis of Illy’s affair, the half-hard member looking startled under the camera’s flash. She put her hand over her mouth and giggled as well, and then made a soft gagging sound. She turned the phone around to Sheedy.

    “It looks fairly clean,” Sheedy said dismissively. She took the phone from Sandy and gave it back to Illy.

    “How should I respond this time?” Illy asked, scratching under her turban.

    “Send him your bawwabat alshaytan, if he isn’t already bored of it,” Sheedy grumbled.

    the nucleus of chaos opened an eye
    and then another
    and then another

    “I love getting dick pics!’ Sandy said.

    “Have you written the tweet yet?” Sheedy asked.

    “What tweet?”

    “About the yahud, the filthy yahud!”

    “OMG, I’ve got to pee so bad!” Sandy replied and darted from the room.

    After a moment, Sheedy asked, “Why do you do it?”

    “Do what?” Illy asked coldly.

    “Show me pictures of his penis. You only do it to hurt me.”

    “You know what is between us is not all that I have.”

    Sheedy reached out and cupped Illy’s left breast.

    “Not here,” she told Sheedy, brushing her hand away. “Never here.”

    “She will be half-an-hour on her make-up at least, the vain whore.”

    “Lock the door,” Illy told her. Sheedy farted when she lifted herself off the couch and went to the office door. Sheedy let herself fall back on the office couch and rolled over onto Illy with a scowl.

    “I want you to be mine, I want to solely possess your dark peach,” Sheedy whispered.

    “You can have me now,” Illy replied in a flat tone.

    “Forever. I want you forever.” Sheedy’s middle finger found Illy’s labial cleft under her suit skirt and rubbed along it trying to look into Illy’s eyes. She found nothing.

    “No, don’t,” Illy said as Sheedy tore her pantyhose.

    “I did. I will. I must,” Sheedy panted. She pushed aside Illy’s underwear and plunged a finger into her and then another.

    “Do you like that?” Sheedy asked, her lips close enough to Illy’s to feel her lover’s breath tickle the hairs of her mustache.

    Illy grunted and turned her head and closed her eyes as Sheedy rammed her fingers into her over and over again, her body moving bonelessly with each thrust.

    a thousand eyes filled with madness closed

    “I don’t feel anything,” Illy whispered.

  • Wednesday Morning Links – Swiss, Not Japanese.

    New Glibs HQ admin assistant, aka “Brain in a Jar”

     

    Grüezi mitenand. 

    Sloopy is still on his ‘quil bender (maybe we can get a sponsorship from Vicks?!). So you get my linkings of links. First, I shall try to keep format with the presentation of the links:

    Birthdays –  A very rough 1/365th of the Earth’s hoomans were born on this day. In some year or another.

    Sports – The only thing that matters is … tomorrow night.

    There, now on to the links!

    • I can see this happening. Swiss beer is… good for what it is. But they could use a shot in the arm, variety-wise. (The Swiss are very much wine drinkers, and kirschwasser too). Oh, please disregard the gratuitous crap (Brexit! Unemployment benefits are the best!) to see a few interesting things in this article.
    • Hey, look! A Swiss-Japan crossover link with yesterday’s theme in mind. You will laugh at the pic at the bottom, so RTFA.
    • Your money or … something! Our money! Our money, take it!!!! Good Lord, France. Have some dignity, would ya!

    Music Link. Yeah, you get one from me. Really.

  • Chapter 5 – The FDA, DHHS, & Vaccines: Anthrax Slides By

    The quality of a vaccine is closely linked to its manufacturing process, which must be rigorously controlled to ensure that batches of vaccines produced on different occasions are of reproducible and consistent quality. In general, quality is achieved by applying the current good manufacturing practice [cGMP] . . . Such principles also apply to the facilities and equipment in which products are manufactured.  Accordingly, vaccine production is very highly regulated to ensure that the products are of consistent quality and safe and effective for the purpose(s) for which regulatory approval was granted.[i]

    Before 1962, vaccines, drugs, and other such products did not undergo nearly the kind of scrutiny that they do today in order to become licensed.  It wasn’t until the thalidomide disaster of the 1960’s that federal regulation of drugs came to be what it is today. As of 2003, the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) is “United States government’s principal agency for protecting the health of all Americans and providing essential human services, especially for those who are least able to help themselves.”[ii] This is a monumental undertaking and is why the DHHS is one of the largest government agencies with over 63,000 employees and an annual budge of $429 billion. It has a number of sub-agencies with their own areas of responsibility, including the Food and drug Administration. The history of these organizations bears some consideration because it is between the historical cracks in legislation and regulation that the current anthrax vaccine would slip.

    In 1906, the first Food and Drug Act was passed, authorizing the federal government to monitor the purity of foods and safety of medicines. The 1906 Act was fairly light, even inadequate by most standards. False statements made about a drug by its manufacturer (i.e., public advertising) were not considered as misbranding by the courts. Additionally, the Act did not grant authority to ban unsafe drugs. For a drug to be legal under the 1906 law, it only had to meet the standards for composition of the United States Pharmacopoeia or the National Formulary. The Bureau of Chemistry – the forerunner to the modern FDA – enforced this law.

    It wasn’t until 1938 that the Food and Drug Administration received broad statutory authority to regulate interstate shipment of unapproved new drugs for investigational use. This kind of federal regulation was a direct result of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s policies and the Great Depression. Prior to the Great Depression, the federal government exerted nothing even approaching the kind of regulatory authority that it does today.

    The Sulfanilamide Disaster of 1937 brought the first modification to the 1906 act. Soldiers originally used sulfanilamide as a treatment for wounds. In powder form it was sprinkled over a wound as an antiseptic, to prevent infection. [This is one of the substances the Nazi doctors used in experiments named in the indictment at the Nuremberg Trials. Thus, their defense that what they did differed little from previous U.S. experiments.] A manufacturer decided to expand the anti-infective use of the drug by mixing sulfanilamide with diethylene glycol – diethylene glycol currently enjoys a more popular following among American consumers as anti-freeze in car radiators. The manufacturer marketed the mixture of glycol and sulfanilamide as an elixir for sore throats. No clinical tests were performed prior to marketing. There were 107 reported deaths from this product.

    Subsequently, the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act of 1938 was enacted, expanding the government’s control to include advertising and labeling of products.  More importantly, it authorized the Food and Drug Administration (for the first time) to establish a regulatory system for obtaining pre-marketing clearance of an investigational new drug. Manufacturers were now required to submit a new drug application (NDA) containing evidence that a drug was safe for its intended use. Despite this grant of authority, the FDA was fairly ‘light’ (by modern standards) in its regulation. These regulations, which remained in effect without change until 1962, left the protection of human subjects almost entirely to the discretion of sponsors and investigators. For example, it did not require a notice for conducting investigational trials to be submitted to the FDA; it did not require pre-clinical safety studies prior to administration of a drug into humans; and, notwithstanding the Nuremberg Trials, the 1938 Act did not require informed consent of test subjects.

    In 1962, thalidomide, a sleeping pill developed and widely used abroad for several years, was being studied for use in the United States. The FDA did not approve this drug for marketing in the U.S. because of the requirements in the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, and because of the refusal of an FDA medical officer, Dr. Frances Kelsey, to clear the drug on what she believed to be inadequate safety evidence provided by the manufacturer. Notwithstanding this, and even though the drug was restricted to investigational use in the U.S., the sponsoring pharmaceutical company widely distributed it to doctors for their use. [This practice continues to this day by some drug manufacturers.] Later, of course, thalidomide was learned to be a human teratogen which caused malformations in many European children. Children were being born without arms or with other severe deformities. A series of lawsuits demonstrated that, in general, prescribers of drugs had been relying on manufacturers for information pertaining to the drugs, and that this information in some instances had been based on inadequate testing, or even on deliberate falsification and deception. The Kefauver-Harris amendments of 1962 were finally enacted as a result of this incident.

    These amendments contained several important new provisions to the FD&C Act. First, it required that all clinical testing of investigational drugs be conducted under applications submitted to the FDA (Investigational New Drug Applications). Additionally, sponsors were required to submit reports of pre-clinical studies to justify their proposed clinical testing in humans, obtain informed consent from test subjects prior to their entry into a study, and report all findings resulting from the investigational studies to the FDA. Second, Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) were established. Any drug not produced in accordance with CGMP would be considered adulterated. Prescription drug advertising was also placed under the supervision of the FDA.

    Finally, the 1962 amendments required that all new drugs, in addition to being safe, must be shown to be effective for their intended use, prior to marketing. The standard for scientific evidence acceptable for demonstrating substantial effectiveness was defined by Congress as:

    adequate and well controlled investigations, including clinical investigations, conducted by experts qualified by scientific training and experience to evaluate the effectiveness of the drug involved, on the basis of which it could be fairly and responsible be concluded by such experts that the drug will have the effect it purports or is represented to have under the conditions of use prescribed, recommended, or suggested in the labeling.[iii]

    The FDA had actually proposed new regulations before the 1962 amendments were enacted, and it issued final rules three months after the new law took effect. These regulations are the broad outlines of the investigational drug regulatory system that remains in effect today.

    The former Division of Biologics Standards (DBS), currently the Center for Biological Evaluation and Research (CBER), was involuntarily transferred to the FDA from the Public Health Service in 1973. Its transfer was triggered by the failed Polio vaccine release, on the grounds that old-world style management encumbered it. The DBS was viewed as incapable of protecting the public health because it was too closely involved with the industry it was supposed to regulate (so-called “unholy marriages” between industry and government regulation). This was the same problem that existed with a number of industries and agencies, including the Atomic Energy Commission.  The same agency was tasked with both promoting and regulating a given industry. The AEC was partly responsible for radiation exposure experiments on troops in the 1940’s.  [AEC regulators actually wore protective suits during experiments while soldiers were completely exposed to the radiation from atomic bomb detonations.]

    An important slip occurred between the time of the passage of the Kefauver-Harris Amendments and the time when the Division of Biologics Standards was transferred from the National Institute of Health’s/PHS’s DBS was put under the FDA.  The FDA was charged with enforcing the Act and passing regulations to do so – which it did. However, a certain class of drugs, biologics (which includes vaccines and other blood products), were under the auspices of the DBS, which was under the Public Health Service, a different agency. Unfortunately, because of the hodgepodge manner in which agencies had sprung up, the DBS, which saw itself as controlled by the Public Health Service Act and also sought to promote the industry it was regulating, did not necessarily require efficacy data for approval of its products, namely, vaccines. Thus, it was not until some ten years later when the DBS was transferred under the FDA (because of the failed polio vaccine release mentioned above) and became the Center for Biological Evaluation and Research (CBER) that vaccines were truly required to show efficacy data – notwithstanding a law requiring it some ten years earlier.

    When CBER finally came under the FDA, all of the previously licensed vaccines that had been given without the required efficacy data would be reviewed and placed into categories. Category I products were considered safe, effective, and not misbranded.  Category II products were unsafe, ineffective, or misbranded. Category III products were split into A and B. Category IIIA products had inconclusive data, but the product would remain on the market pending further study and IIIB drugs were data inconclusive, product to be removed from the market. This review would take an incredibly long time and the review of the anthrax vaccine, licensed in 1970 without any efficacy data, would not be done until 1985.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

    With the creation of so many federal agencies came an increase in the administrative regulations over the industries the agencies were set to watch. The Supreme Court repeatedly deferred to these agencies’ decisions and upheld their regulations. Agencies such as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had increasing roles in their respective areas of concern. As part of the passage of regulations in its area of concern, the Agency first proposes a rule in the federal register for a period of time and invites comment on the proposed rule. The rule is then viewed in practice and left open for comment, then, if necessary, the rule is amended and a final proposed rule is ultimately published. While these regulations do not have the same force and effect as law, if they do not conflict with any preexisting laws and are not inconsistent with the agency’s charter, these rules in effect become law because they are binding upon persons, corporations, or agencies operating in the particular agency’s area of concern.

    The rule regarding testing on human subjects passed with little, if any, comment. Who could disagree with the principle that “no investigator may involve a human being as a subject in research . . . unless the investigator has obtained the legally effective informed consent of the subject[.]”[iv] In fact, almost every federal agency adopted the same or similar version of the regulation regarding human subjects and informed consent. This rule was passed by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) in 1981. The full version of the FDA’s regulations are virtually identical to the full DHHS ones.  They read that

    no investigator may involve a human being as a subject in research covered by these regulations unless the investigator has obtained the legally effective informed consent of the subject or the subject’s legally authorized representative. An investigator shall seek such consent only under circumstances that provide the prospective subject or the representative sufficient opportunity to consider whether or not to participate and that minimize the possibility of coercion or undue influence. The information that is given to the subject or the representative shall be in language understandable to the subject or the representative. No informed consent, whether oral or written, may include any exculpatory language through which the subject or the representative is made to waive or appear to waive any of the subject’s legal rights, or releases or appears to release the investigator, the sponsor, the institution, or its agents from liability for negligence.[v]

    Even the Department of Defense adopted regulations with much the same lack of fanfare in 32 C.F.R. 219.116-117. These regulations state, just as above, that “[e]xcept as provided elsewhere in this policy, no investigator may involve a human being as a subject in research covered by this policy unless the investigator has obtained the legally effective informed consent of the subject or the subject’s legally authorized representative.” The 2003 version of the DoD regulations are identical to the FDA’s.  Everyone seemed to agree that when it comes to experimenting on human subjects, consent was a prerequisite. As an important corollary, DHHS also published some definitions of what research would be covered by the informed consent requirements. It is an extremely broad definition.

    Research means a systematic investigation, including research development, testing and evaluation, designed to develop or contribute to generalizable knowledge. Activities which meet this definition constitute research for purposes of this policy, whether or not they are conducted or supported under a program which is considered research for other purposes . . . Research subject to regulation, and similar terms are intended to encompass those research activities for which a federal department or agency has specific responsibility for regulating as a research activity, (for example, Investigational New Drug requirements administered by the Food and Drug Administration).[vi]

    This last “for example” is critical, as it repeats and reinforces the FDA’s requirements that using Investigational New Drugs for the purpose stated in the New Drug Application is research requiring informed consent. This deserves some explanation as it is crucial to understanding one of the reasons why the anthrax program was illegal.

    The FDA regulates the manufacturers of drugs through the licensing and regulatory process, but it does not control the end-user of the product – i.e. a doctor, or in this case, the Department of Defense. Vaccines are subject to the requirements of the FDA under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FDCA, Title 21, Chapter 9) as prescription drugs and the requirements of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 262) as a biologic. The two acts are not exclusive, but complimentary. Typically, a manufacturer submits a proposed New Drug Application with the FDA setting forth what “clinical protocol” or experiment it is going to do in order to demonstrate the efficacy of its drug. At the same time, the manufacturer also must comply with FDA regulations for how its manufacturing process takes place. Normally an approved drug must have a dual part license, a PLA (product license amendment) for the drug, and an ELA (establishment license amendment) for the facility. This ensures that the product meets the four necessary prerequisites for licensing:  sterility, safety, potency, and efficacy.

    The ELA helps ensure that the drug/biologic is sterile in its manufacturing process and potent. The FDA regulates this process in the facility by enforcing CGMPs (Current Good Manufacturing Practices). These practices are industry practices surrounding such procedures as sterility of the filtering systems, handling of the material, and random testing of the finished product to ensure uniformity from batch to batch. Potency is a good measure for quality control and to ensure efficacy of the manufacturer’s claims and proposed advertising. If random samplings of different batches reveal widely differing potency levels, it calls into question the consistency of the manufacturing process (a quality issue) and whether the drug can support the claims of efficacy. FDA inspectors, supposedly experts in the field, go check the facility to ensure compliance.

    The PLA sets forth the clinical protocol for the product. This includes what studies and data the manufacturer will use to demonstrate effectiveness. In other words, a company cannot simply claim they made a product cleanly and safely, that covers the ELA – one half of the license – they have to show the product does what it is advertised to do. This PLA will set forth how the product will be used (or has already been used) and the data from those controlled studies. Initially, in most cases, animal studies and basic research will be used to gather data. The company will then submit a New Drug Application (NDA), for completely new drugs, or an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for drugs already licensed that the company is seeking to modify somehow.  The PLA, and ultimately license for a drug, is so specific, that any change requires a modification to the existing license. The PLA gives the company an “indication” for using the drug. The “indication” in the license will include the route of administration of the drug (taken by injection or by mouth, for example), the number of shots or pills to be taken (twice daily or once a month?), what form it will be in if necessary (pills, liquid, caplets), dosage (20, 30 or 40 mg, for example), and what exactly the drug is designed to prevent, cure, or ameliorate.

    In the typical course of business, the drug will have advanced from the “experimental” stage to the Investigational New Drug (IND) stage, whether it is a new drug or an existing licensed drug, where some animal studies or other data exists indicating the drug’s likely effect. At this point, in order to gain licensure and prove efficacy in human beings, there must be two well-controlled human studies to prove efficacy of the drug. This point cannot be overstated: before a manufacturer can prove efficacy of a drug for its licensed indication, it must have two human studies. This means that no company manufacturing a drug as a pretreatment for chemical warfare can ever get beyond the Investigational stage. As two Army doctors pointed out in an article in 1992,

    For products designed to protect against chemical and biological agents, a clear demonstration of efficacy would require exposure to humans to these lethal agents. Since this practice would be unethical and immoral, these products never advanced beyond the investigational stage.[vii]

    This requirement proved to be the insuperable obstacle for any DoD contractor trying to make a vaccine as a pretreatment for biological warfare agents – because it would be unethical to test drugs on human beings as pre-treatments for chemical warfare.  HOWEVER, if there were an already existing vaccine that could be used as a pretreatment for a chemical or biological agent and it was licensed for some other purpose, the DoD could use that without being subject to FDA regulation, which brings us full circle to the question of whom the FDA regulates.

    The FDA requirements above all apply to manufacturers, not the end-user. Thus, as an example, let us suppose that there is a drug we will call PB that is used to block a particular chemical from being produced by the brain in patients with a certain disease, we will name MG. Let us suppose this has been licensed for many years and shows no side-effects on these patients in the dosages they take for 35 years of licensed use. Now, let us suppose that the DoD gains knowledge about a certain nerve agent named SM that, as its mechanism of attack, causes the brain to massively produce the same chemical that our licensed drug, MG, blocks the production of. The agent is usually delivered in bombs in aerosol form. The DoD could, it would appear, buy large quantities of this drug and give it to troops in order to prevent the effects of the nerve agent SM.  This use of the drug is considered off-label and investigational. This is because the drug is normally used (and has been licensed) to fight a particular disease, not be a prophylaxis against a nerve agent, and so there is no licensed indication for the drug as a pretreatment as a nerve agent. There is certainly no proof of efficacy for this use. Thus, the manufacturer could certainly not advertise the product as a pretreatment for the hypothetical SM without incurring the regulatory wrath of the FDA, but what about the DoD? The DoD could use the drug in such a fashion, provided it obtained informed consent from the individuals it was giving the drug to. While the FDA would have no way to regulate an end-user relationship normally, the FDA is responsible for monitoring IND applications and clinical trials under an IND application. If the above drug were not licensed fully and the DoD intended to use the drug and track who it was given to and when and how many times and record that in servicemembers record books, that would be research as defined under FDA, DHHS, and even the DoD’s own regulations.  Research requires informed consent. Such administration of the product, vaccine or drug, would have to be performed under an IND clinical protocol.

    On the eve of the Gulf War, the DoD was up against the regulations requiring informed consent, with the concomitant intelligence and history showing that Saddam Hussein (a) possessed such agents and (b) had previously used chemical (and perhaps biological) weapons on minorities in his own country. The DoD therefore lobbied the FDA for a waiver from the requirements of Rule 50.23(d) of the FDA’s regulations.[viii] This would happen for a number of licensed, investigational, and even experimental products, with servicemembers having no say in the matter.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

    Endnotes

    [i] GAO Report T-NSIAD-99-148 (April 29, 1999)

    [ii] Quote from the DHHS website, http://www.hhs.gov/about/profile.html.

    [iii] 21 U.S.C. §355(i) (2000)

    [iv] 45 C.F.R. 46.116 (2000)

    [v] 21 CFR 50.20 (2000)

    [vi] 45 CFR 46.12 (2000)

    [vii] Col. Garland E. McCarty and Lt. Col. Gregory P. Berezuk, Military Medicine, Vol. 157, p. 404 (August 1992)

    [viii] 21 CFR 50.23(d) (1990)

  • Want to bet on it? Bookmakers’ view of the 2020 presidential election

    People pay close attention – maybe too close attention – to political polls for the 2020 presidential election. But you hardly ever hear about how bookmakers handicap the various candidates. The comparison is interesting.

    There are two reasons why you might think the betting odds are more accurate than the polls. First, bookmakers only make money if they set their odds in the correct ratio that corresponds to the relative amount of money actually bet on each candidate. Second, people who lay real money down have a lot more at stake than someone answering a poll. Some of them might also have some inside information that the general public doesn’t have access to.

    The average numbers of recent national polls listed by RealClear Politics (as of August 26) shows these percentages: Biden 27.2, Sanders 16.7, Warren 16.2, Harris 7.5, Buttigieg 4.8, O’Rourke 2.8, Booker 2.5, Yang 2.0, Gabbard 1.3, Castro 1.5, Klobuchar 1.2, Williamson 1.0. Nothing too surprising there.

    But what do the bookmakers say? I found four wagering sites (BetVictor, betWay, Bovada, and NordicBet) that offered political bets and gave a good set of choices. These are all based outside the U.S. The average money lines of candidates for the Democratic nomination who were listed on all four sites were:

    • Elizabeth Warren, +219
    • Joe Biden, +244
    • Kamala Harris, +550
    • Bernie Sanders, +575
    • Pete Buttigieg, +1025
    • Andrew Yang, +1600
    • Tulsi Gabbard, +2625
    • Cory Booker, +3375
    • Hillary Clinton, +3875
    • Beto O’Rourke, +4200
    • Amy Klobuchar, +7000
    • Michelle Obama, +7000
    • Julian Castro, +7250

    For those not familiar with money lines, that is the amount you would win if you bet 100 on that candidate. If you divide the number by 100, that is the approximate odds against them winning. For example, the odds are approximately 2.2-to-1 against Warren winning, or, alternatively, she has roughly a 1-in-3.2, or 31%, chance. I say “approximately” since the vigorish (the bookmaker’s edge) built into these payouts mean they cannot be exactly interpreted as the odds of winning.

    Other candidates were not listed on all sites. Only two had lower odds than those above: Michael Bloomberg was +4000 and Andrew Cuomo +5000 on betWay. Oprah Winfrey appeared twice, at +10000 and +15000.

    One major takeaway from this is that bookmakers, whose livelihood depends on having the pulse of their bettors, think that Warren, with the lowest money line, is the most likely to win, or at least that bookmakers think the betting public thinks she is most likely to win. Another is that Sanders has a smaller chance than the polls suggest. Also, Harris is much stronger, coming in just ahead of Sanders. Converting the odds to approximate win chances, the bookmakers rate Buttigieg, Yang, and Gabbard higher than the polls, while O’Rourke is even weaker than the polls show. And, of course, there is some action for Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. For those who think that Hillary is just waiting in the wings and will be anointed as the 2020 nominee, now is your chance to profit: a $100 bet could net a profit of  $3875.

    Also note that the two most recent national polls (Economist/YouGov and Monmouth) have shown a shift among the top three: the averages are Biden 20.5, Sanders 19.5, and Warren 19.0); Sanders and Warren have gained at Biden’s expense.  Sanders remains much stronger in the recent polls than the odds suggest. Perhaps the bettors believe that the fix will be in again against Bernie.

    For the general election, the average money line was -120 for the Democratic nominee, -110 for the Republican. A negative money line is how much you have to bet to win 100. If you divide it by 100, it is approximately the odds in favor of winning. A more negative number implies being a bigger favorite, so the generic donkey is currently favored. The fact that both numbers are negative just means the bookmakers are getting their cut. Not all sites gave an Other option for the winning party; among the ones that did, the money line ranged from +2500 to +9000 (sorry Libertarians and Greens!).

    One other site not included above, MyBookie, seemed out of line compared to the others. The money lines for the top four Democratic candidates there:

    • Biden, +300
    • Harris, +300
    • Warren, +375
    • Sanders, +765

    Here Harris shows a lot more support than the other sites. Also, the Republican party was listed as -200 in the general election, i.e., about a 2-to-1 favorite, with the Democrats at +160 and Other at +5000. I don’t know why these are so out of line with the other sites; one would think that arbitragers would have pounced on these differing odds and brought them more in line with each other. By placing appropriately-sized bets at three different sites (Dems +160 on MyBookie, Pubs +109 on Pinnacle, and Other +2500 on Marathon), one could guarantee an 11% profit. That’s my pro-tip for the day.

    The MyBookie site also had some Donald Trump specials:

    • Will impeachment begin by 12/31/2019? -5000 no, +1200 yes.
    • Will Trump resign before the end of his first term? -9000 no, +1200 yes.
    • Will Congress obtain Trump’s tax returns by 12/31/2019? -500 no, +300 yes.

    Nothing too surprising there, as none of these are given much chance of happening. Then there’s this one:

    • Will Greenland become the 52nd state by the end of Trump’s second term? -140 yes, +100 no!

    That’s a bit of an eye-opener, although MyBookie seems to be considering DC to be the 51st state (unless that bet needs somewhere else, like Puerto Rico, to precede Greenland to statehood). Maybe the Free State Project can change their target; Greenland’s population is about 1/24th that of New Hampshire, and should be easy to take over if it becomes a state.

    It is still early, and a lot can happen between now and next year. But people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is (or at least the people who are taking that money and want to make a profit) tend to be careful with their prognostications, and my bet (!) is that the bookmaker odds are a better gauge than the political polls.

  • Tuesday Afternoon Emergency Links

    This time, we can’t blame it on Brett going on a bender. It’s possible, mind you, but not necessarily so. I’ll fill in the breach, though, despite being in so much of a flustered rush, I haven’t been able to spend any time here for a couple days. Mostly good (other than the draining Mom-care)- I’m in my third round of interviews at two different companies. So maybe, just maybe, I might soon be employed again.  That will call for a bottle of our finest Champagne, which is pretty fine Champagne. But we’re not there yet… And my apologies for breaking the Japanese string today.

    Birthdays are here, though, including the baseball player with one of the greatest names ever; a great cartoonist whose kindness to my father before Dad’s death will never be forgotten in my family;  a quiet kinda guy, kept to himself, nice to all the neighborhood kids; and the great carpenter Ralph Monroe.

    News, yeah.

     

     

    “See, it’s easy. First, you kill 20 or 30 million of your citizens…”

     

    Minnesoda Nice. The comments are as expected, but possibly accurate.

     

    I usually don’t put up parody links, but this one was too funny. Poor Snopes, they’re in a battle of wits and unarmed.

     

    Heroic Mulatto hardest hit.

     

    Mojeaux hardest hit.

     

    Ahh, Chicago. You really do have the best politicians.

     

    Pakistan rewrites the laws of physics.

     

    Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

     

    Speaking of which, the insanity, it burns!

     

     

    Old Guy Music is a song from my youth that, when Steve Miller stole it, he didn’t even bother filing off the serial number.